Charles Leclaire-Imagn Pictures
They are saying that step one to fixing an issue is admitting that you’ve one. In that spirit, I’d like to begin in the present day’s article with a confession: I’ve a Trent Grisham analysis downside. It feels good to say it! I’ve had this downside for years. Ever since he burst onto the scene in San Diego with two straight seasons of fine hitting and nice fielding, I’ve persistently overestimated his future trajectory. I put him on the primary lower of my commerce worth record yearly. I consider him as a starter even when the groups that make use of him don’t.
I do know all of this. Once I’ve checked out Grisham prior to now, I’ve seen a wonderful participant even when others haven’t, and I perceive that this bias shades my analysis. However simply once I thought I used to be kicking the behavior, Grisham goes and does one thing like this and pulls me proper again in. Via Monday’s motion, the primary quarter of the season, he’s hitting a ridiculous .288/.373/.663, and whereas that’s not any cheap hitter’s slugging proportion, he’s completely tattooing the ball, posting profession excessive marks in barrel fee, hard-hit fee, xwOBACON, xSLG, common exit velocity… You get the concept, he’s simply hitting every part very onerous in the intervening time.
Now, as a reformed Grishamite, I’ve to inform you that hitting the ball onerous isn’t considered one of Grisham’s shortcomings. Not fairly like this, after all, as a result of the one one who recurrently hits like that is Aaron Choosehowever he’s all the time been a menace to go deep. Grisham may need a low-ish wRC+ over the previous three years, however the issue has been the amount of his hits quite than the standard. Even whereas he scuffled mightily, he slugged roughly 20 homers per 600 plate appearances. He doesn’t all the time put the ball in play, however when he does, he makes it depend.
Grisham additionally forces pitchers to come back to him. He’s among the many league’s greatest in the case of chase fee, and he’s strolling at a double digit clip. Once more, although, I’ve to inform you that this isn’t new. Grisham’s chase fee is increased than it was final yr, and his stroll fee is under his profession common. In contrast to your typical outfielder with a below-average batting line, this isn’t a problem of Grisham by no means seeing a slider he doesn’t like. He’s fairly keen to work a depend if pitchers gained’t problem him within the zone.
Don’t these qualities sound nice? Welcome! You, too, can have a look at Trent Grisham and see the following nice power-and-patience masher who occurs to play good protection in middle subject. However belief me once I say that it’s simple to be misled by these traits. Grisham has had good energy for years. He’s been picky for years. Why is it manifesting itself as the most well liked stretch of his profession as an alternative of, you already know, the remainder of his profession?
Right here’s a straightforward manner to consider it: Grisham has by no means had an issue with swinging an excessive amount of. Moderately, he’s had an issue with swinging too little. Few hitters chase much less incessantly, notably early within the depend. However few hitters swing at strikes much less incessantly than Grisham; that’s simply the way in which the cut price works. You may’t have one with out the opposite. There’s all the time going to be a tradeoff.
Typically talking, I like a participant who swings too not often as an alternative of too incessantly. It’s basic math, kind of. Swinging at a strike has some nice outcomes (hits), some terrible outcomes (batted ball outs), and a few dangerous outcomes (foul balls or swinging strikes). Swinging at a ball has fewer nice outcomes, as a result of it’s very onerous to do harm once you’re hitting pitches outdoors the zone. However the downsides? They’re nonetheless there. In the meantime, taking a ball? That’s nice. And taking a strike? Positive, it’s dangerous, however loads of the occasions that you just swing, you find yourself including a strike anyway. Take extra pitches, and also you’ll get forward within the depend extra usually until pitchers adapt.
There’s one enormous downside with this strategy, although, and you’ll see it in Grisham’s profession line. How does a man who not often chases strike out at a 26% clip? It’s as a result of he hasn’t fairly labored out the suitable steadiness between being picky and being selective. This strategy has a weak point, and it’s a easy one: attacking the strike zone early within the depend. You may take an especially affected person strategy when you’re, say, Juan Sotoas a result of pitchers aren’t loopy. They know that Soto is each affected person and completely deadly when he does swing. He has elite contact abilities and top-shelf energy. He has top-shelf pitch recognition, too — that’s why they pay him the massive bucks. For those who’re attempting to sneak a middle-middle fastball by Soto, you’ll need to stay with the results when he deigns to swing.
Grisham was by no means going to be the following Juan Soto, however what in regards to the subsequent Lars Nootable? Nootbaar is about 20% higher than common offensively for his profession regardless of being outrageously swing-averse, and he additionally strikes out far lower than Grisham. That’s as a result of, to place it merely, when he swings at strikes early within the depend, he’s swinging more durable, making extra contact, and conserving extra of his contact honest. Yeah, these issues are good, and we inveterate Grisham defenders principally missed that distinction throughout Grisham’s lengthy downswing.
That brings me to 2025. I’m attempting to be measured. I’m attempting to not learn an excessive amount of into issues. However Grisham seems to be quite a bit completely different than he did earlier than, and the particular factor he’s mounted is the factor that the majority held him again lately. Sure, that’s proper: Trent Grisham is definitely making pitchers pay after they drive feed him strikes. I’ve highlighted the very best end in every class under:
Trent Grisham, Early Rely, In Zone
12 months
Swing%
Whiff/Swing%
In Play/Swing%
Arduous Hit%
xwOBACON
Runs/100 Swings
2020
48.3%
19.1%
20.5%
41.3%
.462
0.1
2021
53.3%
18.0%
19.6%
37.2%
.356
-0.9
2022
42.1%
20.6%
17.4%
40.0%
.376
-0.6
2023
50.6%
26.4%
16.9%
39.8%
.400
0
2024
45.1%
21.7%
18.6%
50.0%
.339
2.0
2025
51.6%
8.9%
21.9%
55.9%
.563
4.1
0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1 counts, all pitches in strike zone
Actually, xwOBACON? Every thing is extra scrumptious with bacon, after all, however that’s simply the anticipated wOBA worth of his balls in play, and uh, yeah, these are all nice numbers. He’s making way more contact, and that contact is meaningfully louder than at any earlier level in his profession. Now that he’s depositing early-count fastballs into the suitable subject stands, pitchers can’t simply flood the zone and anticipate to win. Grisham isn’t going to maintain producing at this stage for lengthy; for context, Soto has produced about 4 runs per 100 of those swings in his profession. However Grisham is each using a scorching streak and making an enchancment that was all the time inside attain.
I imply, certain, that is towards human dwelling run generator Kyle Gibsonhowever a yr in the past, Grisham wasn’t doing this:
This one’s towards a greater pitcher:
Need to throw Grisham a lifeless center changeup to place him down within the depend? Not if he’s doing this:
Like most hitters, Grisham swings extra incessantly and with decrease bat velocity when he reaches two-strike counts. Swinging will get significantly better when a foul ball doesn’t price you a strike, and taking will get a lot worse when it could possibly finish your at-bat. Most of the most affected person hitters in baseball flip to a extra contact-oriented strategy with two strikes to cope with that unlucky actuality, however that plan doesn’t work as nicely for Grisham, who has below-average contact abilities, in contrast to the 2 guys I’ve been evaluating him to.
If two-strike counts are going to be dangerous for you, the very best factor you are able to do is keep away from them. However Grisham was by no means excellent at that, largely as a result of he wasn’t changing sufficient hittable early-count pitches into balls in play. A few of that was about not swinging, however a few of it was that his swings had been foul balls or whiffs as an alternative of strong contact. Consider it this manner: Over a 600 PA season, and at earlier profession charges, Grisham would find yourself in about 33 extra two-strike counts than Nootbaar. That’s a ton, and he’s fairly dangerous in two-strike counts, even relative to league common in these troublesome conditions. This yr, he’s been principally Nootbaar’s equal in avoiding two-strike counts (and Soto’s, too, for what it’s price). These two find yourself with their backs towards the wall lower than the league as an entire, and now Grisham does as nicely.
I’ll stage with you: Regardless of my greatest efforts, I’m beginning to purchase again into the Grisham expertise greater than I ought to. Think about a middle fielder with a double digit stroll fee and 25-homer energy. Poor 2025 defensive metrics in a small pattern however, Grisham is a superb defender. He’s prime 10 in baseball for middle subject protection since he debuted, because of an excellent first step that makes up for his only-acceptable straight line velocity. That sort of defender with walks and energy? The place do I enroll?
You enroll on the Ben Clemens Trent Grisham fan membership, after all, and the membership logbook is simply me writing my very own identify again and again. I ought to relax about this. You may’t anticipate his new type to proceed. “Simply miss much less and do extra harm once you make contact” is just too easy of a proof. Possibly it’s the brand new open stance, although his swing seems to be just like me other than the place to begin. Possibly it’s about intent, although it’s not like his swing fee has budged a lot. However regardless of the mechanics are, the change is straightforward to see: Grisham took the worst a part of his sport, the half the place he dinked foul balls and meekly saved the bat on his shoulder at the beginning of each at-bat, and utterly reversed it.
One factor it’s not? Some bizarre Aaron Choose pitch choice halo. The Yankees have feasted on fastballs this yr, however Grisham’s portion measurement hasn’t modified. He’s seeing early-count fastballs much less incessantly than in any earlier yr of his profession. Even when pitchers enterprise into the strike zone towards him, they’re doing it with fastballs lower than ever earlier than. You could possibly think about Choose’s presence convincing pitchers to problem everybody else, however there’s no proof of that in the way in which pitchers have come after Grisham. He’s simply been as much as the duty of coping with it to a a lot larger extent than in earlier years.
You may think about a halfway level between Grisham’s present type and what he’s completed over the previous few years. He’s clearly not going to maintain stinging the ball at this fee, however once you’re as picky as he’s, you may as nicely go after pitches you possibly can drive, and Grisham’s doing that in addition to he ever has. Nearly nobody in baseball takes fewer swings than Trent Grisham, notably early within the depend. When he’s in three-ball (and 2-0) counts, forcing the pitcher to come back to him, he has enormous energy, which is how he’s maintained a 20-homer tempo all these years. However he hadn’t translated that mindset to the early-count swings nicely sufficient, and he’s lastly beginning to do it.
Will this scorching type sustain? In all probability not. Positively not! However when you’ve been a Grisham stan all these years, that is the factor you all the time thought he’d finally do. To not this extent, and never eternally, however it appears really easy! Simply hit the pitches within the strike zone onerous usually sufficient that pitchers can’t bowl you over. Okay, I’ve gotta go. These Trent Grisham fan golf equipment aren’t going to prepare themselves – and regardless of my higher judgment, I’m shopping for again in.
