Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports activities
Heston Kjerstad turned 26 in February, and he solely has 158 main league plate appearances. That’s greater than you or I had at that age, nevertheless it’s not so much relative to expectations. This was a extremely polished SEC nook bat who went second total 5 years in the past, although for causes I’ll get into, Kjerstad wasn’t your backyard selection no. 2 decide. After a token call-up on the finish of 2023, in 2024 he spent extra time in Triple-A (the place he posted a 160 wRC+ in 56 video games) than within the majors (the place he posted a wRC+ of 116, which isn’t lighting the world on fireplace, however continues to be good, particularly for a rookie).
No person needs to get their shot due to an damage, however Colton Cowser busting his thumb on Sunday leaves a two-month gap that Kjerstad has to, has to, has to take advantage of.
In 2023, Kjerstad hit .303/.376/.528 in 122 video games throughout Double- and Triple A. He carried out even higher in 2024. Given his excessive prospect stats courting again to his time at Arkansas, why has he spent so lengthy within the queue? Effectively, Kjerstad’s draft place is somewhat deceptive. He got here out in 2020, when — I don’t know in case you bear in mind this — historical past occurred and the faculty baseball season bought canceled after lower than a month. That June, a truncated draft went forward, and with little info on the prospects popping out, the draft was comically college-heavy and conservative. These gamers who did get drafted couldn’t play within the minors that yr, and between scouting deficits and developmental disruptions, numerous can’t-miss prospects from that class have did not pop.
If I’d been in Mike Elias’ footwear that evening, I wouldn’t have taken Kjerstad second total; I might’ve gone with Vanderbilt’s Austin Martinand we will all see how nicely that will’ve labored out. One of the best participant from the 2020 high 10, thus far, has been Reid Detmerswho posted a 6.70 ERA final yr. One of the best participant from the primary spherical total has been Garrett Crochetand in case you’re searching for different successes, the sphere thins out after Patrick Bailey, Jordan Westburgand Austin Wells.
Furthermore, not even the Orioles thought Kjerstad was really the second-best participant within the draft; he signed for the seventh-highest bonus within the class, some $2.59 million beneath slot. About half of that financial savings went to a Florida highschool third baseman named Coby Couldwhom Baltimore drafted within the fourth spherical and is now a top-50 international prospect on the fringes of the majors. Looks as if a wise transfer looking back.
Even in that cursed draft class, Kjerstad had it more durable than most. Shortly after the Orioles drafted him, Kjerstad was recognized with myocarditis and prohibited from endeavor strenuous bodily exercise — comparable to enjoying skilled sports activities. By the point Kjerstad made his skilled debut in June 2022, he hadn’t performed a significant baseball recreation in 25 months.
And but he killed it as soon as he bought his likelihood. The final yr he was eligible for our High 100 Prospects checklist, 2024, Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin put a 70 on his energy and ranked him twenty fourth total. Cowser, who ended up leaping him in line, was two spots decrease on the Orioles’ staff prospect checklist.
So regardless that Kjerstad’s skilled profession has been loaded with adversity not of his personal making, he’s earned a shot. And but he’s solely type of gotten it, as a result of he’s been concerned in one thing like a 12-way competitors for 3 spots within the lineup.
Along with Cowser, the Orioles have Ryan Mountcastlea catcher time-share of Adley Rutschman and Gary Sánchez that’s going to finish up with one of many two DHing fairly ceaselessly, and Ryan O’Hearn. Plenty of groups would welcome a lefty bopper to their lineup, even one with restricted defensive utility. The Orioles, just like the French knights and the Holy Grail within the Monty Python film, have already got one.
Shelling out for Tyler O’Neill actually provides to the nook outfield choices, however imagine it or not, the logjam is nowhere close to as dangerous because it was this time final yr. Again then, the Orioles additionally needed to make time for Austin Hays, Kyle Stowersand Anthony Santanderall of whom are not with the membership.
So Cowser’s damage has lastly, lastly, made Kjerstad a starter. He’s began two of Baltimore’s final three video games; the one exception was towards Crochet on Wednesday, once I guess supervisor Brandon Hyde didn’t wish to feed his younger left-handed slugger to probably the greatest left-handed starters within the league. (Issues couldn’t have gone a lot worse; Crochet pitched eight scoreless innings.) In an effort to keep within the lineup as soon as Cowser returns, nonetheless, Kjerstad has to reply two questions that linger regardless of his productiveness.
One is accessing his recreation energy. Kjerstad hits the ball arduous. From the beginning of the 2023 season by Wednesday’s video games, 530 gamers have batted 150 or extra occasions; Kjerstad is 93rd in hard-hit price, which is fairly good. He’s one spot forward of Max Muncy the Elderand the following 20 spots on the checklist embody guys like O’Hearn, Lawrence Butler, Cal Raleighand Kyle Tucker. However he’s 191st in barrel price, on the head of a three-player group (with the now-retired Alex Kirilloff and Josh Bell) that I wish to name the “Man, It Feels Like He Ought to Be Hitting Extra Dwelling Runs” Membership.
I’ve some rationalization for that, albeit in a comparatively small main league pattern: Kjerstad has a average case of Ryan Mountcastle Syndrome. Briefly: Typically, you wish to hit the ball arduous, within the air, to the pull facet. That results in house runs. Whenever you hit the ball on the bottom, ideally that goes to the other area. Grounders the opposite means are typically softer, which result in fewer double performs, and the extra of them you hit, the much less you’re going to get shifted.
Right here’s what Kjerstad has completed thus far in his massive league profession:
Heston Kjerstad’s Profession Hit Distribution
Batted Ball Sort
Pull%
Cent%
Oppo%
Grounders
52.8
38.9
8.3
Flies
11.4
51.4
37.1
Liners
26.3
26.3
47.4
By means of April 2
That’s not a straightforward factor to repair, and you’ll inform as a result of we’re speaking about fairly good main league first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, and never two-time AL MVP Ryan Mountcastle. The hope with Kjerstad is that this can be a small-sample mirage. Certainly, Kjerstad’s minor league spray numbers have often been extra within the 40% pull vary, relatively than the low 30s or excessive 20s.
The opposite lingering situation with Kjerstad is his potential to regulate the perimeters of the zone. Kjerstad’s profession chase price is 34.1%; the key league common this yr is 28.9%, and has been in that neighborhood the previous three seasons. A hitter with plus or plus-plus energy can get away with a chase price like that if he can search and destroy inside the zone as nicely, and his aggressiveness doesn’t push his stroll price down or his strikeout price too far.
In 2024, Kjerstad ran a 12.4% stroll price and a 26% strikeout price in Triple-A, which is nice. Within the majors, he wasn’t fairly pretty much as good — 8.8% stroll price and 28.9% strikeout price. But when he’s hitting 30 dingers a yr, that’s completely acceptable for a first-division starter.
The place issues collapse for Kjerstad is when the ball is across the fringes of the strike zone:
Efficiency within the Shadow Zone, 2023-25
Participant
Pitch %
BA
OBP
SLG
wOBA
xwOBA
Whiff%
Kjerstad
44.3
.175
.257
.270
.241
.273
35.3
All LHH OF
43.3
.219
.273
.338
.268
.269
27.0
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
He’s whiffing so much, and when he does make contact, it’s not particularly productive. Small surprise, then, that on Thursday Purple Sox starter Tanner Houck threw him mainly nothing however breaking balls and offspeed stuff, within the space the place he knew Kjerstad would have hassle dealing with it:
The primary 10 pitches Kjerstad noticed weren’t fairly. In his first at-bat, he whiffed twice en path to a six-pitch strikeout. In his second, Kjerstad fell behind 1-2, although a type of strikes got here on a very malevolent sweeper that regarded like a batting observe fastball and dropped just like the S&P 500 proper as Kjerstad got here out of his footwear swinging at it. Ain’t no person hitting a pitch like that.
The crimson dot in the course of the zone was the final pitch Kjerstad noticed earlier than Houck was lifted for a lefty reliever and Mountcastle was introduced in to pinch-hit in response. It was additionally the primary really hittable pitch Kjerstad noticed all day.
Certain sufficient, Kjerstad hit it. He dumped it within the left heart area hole at 100.3 mph for a 320-foot double.
That’s good hitting from Kjerstad, and an excellent end result. However it’s not an ideal one. One of the best hitters in baseball can take that pitch and pull it. Right here’s how one of the best left-handed hitters in baseball did final yr on comparable pitches:
The ten Greatest Left-Handed Hitters in Baseball in 2024 by wRC+, on Elevated 4-Seam Fastballs Between 92 and 95 mph
Swing%
Contact%
wOBA
Barrel/BBE
HR/BIP
Pull%
84.4
82.2
.495
23.7
13.4
33.1
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Even one of the best hitters within the league don’t pull this pitch on a regular basis; their collective spray charts are nearly completely even from pull to reverse. However once they pulled these pitches, they posted a collective .820 wOBA and a 21.2% HR/BIP ratio. When hitting to the other area, their common exit velocity was greater than 12 mph slower (111.1 mph vs. 98.8); accordingly, one of the best left-handed hitters within the league posted a 5.9% HR/BIP ratio and a wOBA of solely .294 on middle-middle and middle-up fastballs between 92 and 95 mph that had been hit the opposite means.
The distinction between a double and a house run is fairly self-evident. It’s additionally the distinction between an excellent hitter and a franchise hitter. If Kjerstad seems to be the latter, he’ll find yourself serving to carry the Orioles deep into the playoffs, given the staff’s wealth of place participant expertise. If he’s solely the previous, he’ll find yourself as commerce bait, identical to numerous prospects from this era had been earlier than: Stowers, Hays, Connor Norby, Joey Ortizthe checklist goes on.
Over the following two months, we’ll be taught so much about which destiny awaits Kjerstad: Is he an necessary piece, or is he merely somebody the Orioles can commerce to get an necessary piece at a special place?
