July 16, 2025
The hazard of “most stress” vs. the promise of “pragmatic engagement.”
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Cuban navy personnel carry caricatures of US President Donald Trump as they cross in entrance of the Jose Marti monument throughout the Might Day parade on Might 1, 2019, in Havana, Cuba.(Sven Creutzmann / Getty Photographs)
Since Donald Trump returned to the White Home, expectations have been that his administration will use escalating sanctions to pursue regime change in Cuba—a lot as he did throughout his first time period. With Marco Rubio, beforehand the toughest of hardliners within the US Senate, now serving as secretary of state—and doubling as nationwide safety adviser—the stage seems set for a return to a punitive coverage of “most stress” to push the teetering Cuban economic system over the sting. “In 2019, the coverage was most stress, however we by no means obtained to most stress,” Mauricio Claver-Carone, then Trump’s particular envoy to Latin America, instructed a Miami viewers in April. “And now we’re going to ramp up that stress.”
On June 30, the Trump White Home formally took step one to “ramp up” a marketing campaign of stress” towards Cuba—within the type of Nationwide Safety Presidential Memorandum-5. The directive explicitly states that it’s a “reissuance” of NSPM-5 from 2017—a word-for-word return to Trump’s insurance policies from his first time period—“on strengthening the coverage of the USA towards Cuba,” with simply two amendments (defined beneath). NSPM-5 reiterates restrictions on journey and commerce with Cuba, with out explicitly increasing the restrictions that presently exist. However the directive additionally orders US businesses to revisit their rules on journey and commerce with Cuba by the top of July—a sign that tighter restrictions and extra punitive sanctions may very well be forthcoming later this summer time.
Invoking the brand new directive, final week the State Division levied sanctions towards Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and two of his ministers, to mark the fourth anniversary of the July 11, 2021, protests in Cuba throughout the pandemic. The sanctions encompass completely denying visas to the Cuban leaders—a meaningless penalty.
To grasp the implications of NSPM-5, The Nation sat down with two Cuba specialists, William M. LeoGrande and Geoff Thale, who’ve co-authored a complete new research, “US-Cuban Relations: A Realist Case for Pragmatic Engagement.” Their report, carried out for the Quincy Institute for Accountable Statecraft, asserts that the “nationwide curiosity of the USA could be higher served by resetting US coverage towards Cuba, embarking on a path of engagement aimed toward ultimately normalizing relations.” Within the following Q&A, LeoGrande and Thale critique Trump’s hostile Cuba coverage—and provide another course of engagement way more more likely to serve the pursuits of the USA and the Cuban folks.
—Peter Kornbluh
The Nation: On June 30, President Trump issued Nationwide Safety Presidential Memorandum 5—setting the stage for his second-term Cuba coverage. Besides the directive is nearly an identical to the one he issued throughout his first time period. What’s Trump making an attempt to perform by reissuing a coverage package deal that has largely remained in place since 2017?
William M. LeoGrande: The brand new NSPM is a reinstatement and reaffirmation of the sanctions package deal Trump introduced in 2017 when he repudiated President Obama’s normalization coverage. It indicators a continuation of the coverage of hostility however doesn’t seem to dramatically improve sanctions. In some methods, it’s much less extreme than the “most stress” coverage Trump imposed in 2019 underneath the affect of nationwide safety adviser John Bolton.
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There seems to be a tug of conflict underway on Trump’s overseas coverage staff between pro-sanctions interventionists like Marco Rubio and MAGA skeptics who’re cautious of overseas entanglements. The “America First” faction would favor to depart Cuba on the again burner by reaffirming the established order moderately than escalating US involvement. And that’s what NSPM-5 does.
However loads will rely upon the main points of the brand new rules implementing the coverage, and nothing forecloses Trump from imposing new sanctions sooner or later, as he did in his first time period.
Geoff Thale: Agreed. Reissuing NSPM 5 is extra a gesture than a considerable shift in coverage. Present sanctions already prohibit most commerce with Cuba, restrict journey to the island, and put some stress on overseas guests and overseas traders. Issuing NSPM 5 permits the administration to speak powerful on Cuba with out doing something new.
TN: The brand new NSPM is nearly an identical to the outdated NSPM, with only a few phrase adjustments. Are you able to clarify the distinction between them, and why the brand new language is vital?
WML: There are two substantive adjustments within the new NSPM. First, it directs the State Division to replace the so-called “Restricted Entities” record—an official record created by Trump throughout his first time period of Cuban enterprises with which US residents and firms are banned from doing enterprise. And it expands the standards of the record to incorporate entities that function “on behalf of” the Cuban armed forces, not simply ones operated by the armed forces. The brand new record, together with an inventory of prohibited accommodations, was launched on July 11, nevertheless it merely provides seven new accommodations to record—not a drastic change.
The opposite vital change within the new NSPM prohibits “oblique” in addition to “direct” transactions with entities on the “Restricted” record. Presumably, an oblique transaction could be one which goes by means of some middleman entity that isn’t listed.
GT: Including the phrases “and oblique” may counsel that the administration may pursue what are referred to as “secondary sanctions”—penalties towards entities from different international locations (akin to Spain or Canada) that do enterprise with Cuba. However the “Restricted Entities Checklist” is an inventory of Cuban enterprises tied to the navy with whom US residents and firms can’t do enterprise. It doesn’t apply to third-country entities, not less than in its current type.
However secondary sanctions, if imposed, may very well be very damaging to the Cuban economic system. They could drive present overseas traders and buying and selling companions to withdraw from Cuba, and they’d definitely deter new traders, at a time when Cuba urgently wants onerous forex and overseas funding. Although they may, satirically, provide new alternatives for Russian and Chinese language funding as others withdraw.
TN: The NSPM orders US businesses to replace their Cuba rules inside 30 days. We’ll doubtless know what these are by the start of August. What can we count on by way of future restrictions on the proper to journey for academic excursions akin to those The Nation results in Cuba?
WML: Surprisingly, the NSPM seems to depart group people-to-people journey intact by spelling out the situations underneath which it’s licensed. In fact, Trump can at all times add new sanctions on journey, remittances, and so forth., as he did throughout his first time period. However the brand new NSPM is extra a reaffirmation of the established order than it’s an escalation of sanctions.
GT: For the reason that NSPM announcement, the administration has added seven accommodations—together with the Gran Aston in Havana the place some academic tour teams have stayed—to the “prohibited” record. New rules within the subsequent month definitely may create extra obstacles for journey. However, general, the NSPM appears to protect nonacademic academic journey, and journey to “assist the Cuban folks.” So vital new restrictions on journey appear unlikely.
TN: Trump has touted his Cuba insurance policies as “most stress.” However you’re co-authors of a brand new, and very well timed, coverage research—“US-Cuban Relations: A Realist Case for Pragmatic Engagement”—that presents a cogent argument for a really totally different strategy. What are the origins of this research? What’s “pragmatic engagement”?
GT: You realize, it turned clear throughout the 2024 election season that nationwide safety arguments have been the one compelling set of arguments that may inspire both a Democratic or a Republican administration to vary course on Cuba. So in the summertime of 2024 we pulled collectively a set of specialists on Cuba coverage with whom we may seek the advice of on suggestions for a brand new coverage strategy targeted on nationwide safety. We did one-on-one interviews and drafted this coverage paper round nationwide curiosity arguments.
WML: In assessing overseas coverage choices, realists look first on the nationwide curiosity, so we requested ourselves what coverage towards Cuba would greatest advance a variety of US pursuits. We targeted on the priorities President Trump has voiced with regard to the Western Hemisphere: managing migration, containing the affect of US international rivals, halting the circulation of narcotics, and securing entry to strategic minerals.
A practical engagement coverage is one which adapts US targets to our capabilities. In different phrases, what works? What could be accomplished by the USA unilaterally, at low value, with little draw back threat, to advance our targets. Within the paper we argue that US targets usually tend to be superior by participating with Cuba moderately than by sustaining a coverage of sanctions and hostility, which hasn’t superior US pursuits regardless of being in place for greater than 60 years.
GT: President Trump’s overseas coverage has targeted on defending US nationwide pursuits, and US safety. In Latin America, specifically, that coverage has targeted on migration points, on limiting the affect of China and Russia, and on drug coverage. We argue that these US pursuits could be extra successfully superior by participating with Cuba than by sustaining or additional tightening our embargo.
An instance: Cuba’s weakened economic system has led to a wave of migration; hardening our border can sluggish that wave however not cease it. And tightening the screws on the Cuban economic system will solely contribute to migration pressures. The Trump administration has suspended dialogue with Cuba on migration points, making migration administration even more durable. Reengaging with Cuba on migration talks, and steps to ease financial pressures that drive migration (particularly steps that may assist the Cuban personal sector) would serve our nationwide curiosity extra successfully than a coverage of most stress would.
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TN: Cuba is already in a dire financial state of affairs. What are the humanitarian penalties of additional destabilizing Cuba economically?
WML: US sanctions have performed a serious function within the present humanitarian disaster on the island, together with the Covid pandemic and coverage errors by the Cuban authorities. Extra intense sanctions imply a deeper disaster, growing pressures for emigration, lowering the Cuban authorities’s capability to cooperate on problems with mutual curiosity like narcotics interdiction, and opening the door to China and Russia as they arrive to Cuba’s assist. None of those outcomes serve US pursuits.
GT: Meals shortages and malnutrition are already points in Cuba, and the nation is receiving assist from the World Meals Program. Vitality scarcity means frequent blackouts. The healthcare system is struggling to offer fundamental companies. Tightening the US embargo additional, by means of secondary sanctions or different measures, goes to extend starvation and human struggling, lower hope, and drive additional migration.
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TN: Given the dire state of affairs on the island, what are the subsequent steps {that a} prudent and “pragmatic” US coverage ought to take?
GT: First, we may help the Cuban economic system and the personal sector there by taking Cuba off the record of “State Sponsors of Terror.” This inaccurate designation deters overseas companies, banks, and governments from interacting with Cuba, and makes it a lot more durable for the personal sector to hold out worldwide monetary transactions. We should always allow what’s referred to as “correspondent banking,” so that non-public companies in Cuba have the power to open US financial institution accounts and function in common banking channels. We should always let US traders, and meaning principally Cuban People, put money into personal and cooperative companies in Cuba. All of these are simple measures that will assist the Cuban economic system and the personal sector and ease the pressures that drive migration. Clearly, we should always make it simpler for humanitarian assist teams to ship meals, drugs, and different provides with out the restrictions and pink tape that presently exist.
These are all first steps. We must be real looking and acknowledge that they gained’t remodel Cuba, or US-Cuban relations in a single day. However they’d set us on a path that serves US nationwide and safety pursuits.
WML: We should always interact! That’s the fundamental lesson of the Obama–Raul Castro breakthrough to normalize relations in December 2014 which efficiently superior US pursuits earlier than Trump reverted to a coverage of perpetual hostility.
Engagement is feasible and productive. Through the two years that Obama’s coverage was in place, the USA and Cuba reestablished diplomatic relations and signed 22 bilateral cooperation agreements on problems with mutual curiosity. Academic and cultural exchanges and journey flourished, enriching each international locations. New financial hyperlinks have been established. Cuban and Cuban American households have been reunited. And the 2 governments for the primary time opened diplomatic discussions about powerful points like human rights and property claims.
Engagement is common. United States allies all over the world cheered Obama’s coverage, particularly in Latin America. Opinion in the USA was overwhelmingly constructive, even amongst Republicans. By the top of the Obama administration, even nearly all of Cuban People in Miami favored lifting the embargo.
Engagement is unavoidable. Cuba is simply 90 miles away and it’s not going anyplace. Through the years, even Republican presidents have realized that there are some issues Washington can’t resolve unilaterally. That realization led nearly all of them to interact diplomatically with Cuba on one problem of one other, nearly at all times with constructive outcomes. Solely Obama had the braveness to aim full normalization, and he made extra progress in two years than all his predecessors and successors collectively have made in additional than half a century.
Peter Kornbluh
Peter Kornbluh, a longtime contributor to The Nation on Cuba, is co-author, with William M. LeoGrande, of Again Channel to Cuba: The Hidden Historical past of Negotiations Between Washington and Havana. Kornbluh can also be the writer of The Pinochet File: A Declassified File on Atrocity and Accountability.
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