Troy Taormina-Imagn Pictures
Yordan Alvarez is among the greatest hitters on the planet. From 2021-24, solely Aaron Decide produced a better wRC+ than Alvarez’s 165, and solely 5 gamers surpassed his complete of 136 house runs. Throughout that point, the slugger helped the Astros to 2 pennants and a championship, furthering his legend with some dramatic postseason homers as nicely. But to date in 2025, Alvarez has struggled mightily. In reality, he closed April with a WAR under zero (-0.1) after posting 5.3 WAR final season.
Via 28 video games, Alvarez is hitting .219/.316/.354, nicely shy of final 12 months’s sometimes stellar .308/.392/.567. In reality, his 81-point drop in wRC+ is the fourth largest amongst gamers who took 300 plate appearances final 12 months and have made not less than 80 this season:
Largest Drops in wRC+ from 2024 to 2025
Minimal 300 plate appearances in 2024 and 80 by way of April 30, 2025.
So what’s occurring with Alvarez? He’s truly hitting the ball tougher than he did final 12 months or the 12 months earlier than, not less than if we’re measuring solely by common exit velocity — which isn’t a good way to go:
Yordan Alvarez Statcast Profile
Season
BBE
EV
LA
Brl%
HH%
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
2022
371
95.2
12.3
21.0%
59.8%
.306
.326
.613
.669
.427
.460
2023
322
93.3
17.1
18.0%
52.2%
.293
.297
.583
.623
.415
.435
2024
461
93.1
18.3
14.5%
49.7%
.308
.303
.567
.595
.402
.411
2025
81
94.1
19.3
12.3%
45.7%
.219
.253
.354
.502
.289
.370
Alvarez’s uncooked exit velocity has elevated, however extra considerably, his barrel price has dropped from the 92nd percentile to the 73rd, and his hard-hit price from the 93rd to the sixty fifth. Whereas it’s early, we will put some inventory in these numbers, as exit velocity stabilizes after about 40 batted ball occasions, barrel price at 50 BBE, and hard-hit price at 80 BBE.
Digging by way of Alvarez’s Statcast web page, one factor that significantly stands out is that whereas his common launch angle and groundball and fly ball charges have hardly budged from final 12 months, he’s gotten below 37% of his batted balls, hitting them at launch angles too excessive to be productive. That price is tenth amongst all qualifiers, and it’s about 12 share factors above each his profession mark and the foremost league common.
Cherry-picking just a few different Statcast particulars, whereas Alvarez has slugged .800 on middle-middle pitches, up from .679 final 12 months, he’s swung at solely 50% of them, down from 79% final 12 months. The place he hit .314 and slugged .541 in opposition to four-seamers in 2024, he’s right down to a .152 common and a .273 slugging share this 12 months. His swing and chase charges are in step with final 12 months’s charges (which had been a bit above his profession norms), however his decision-marking seems to have taken a success. Per Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which measures the standard of a hitter’s swing selections, he’s dropped from the ninety fifth percentile in 2023 and the 91st percentile final 12 months to the forty third percentile this 12 months.
Alvarez isn’t one to take consolation within the Statcast metrics that recommend he’s typically heading in the right direction. By way of the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara:
When a reporter famous he’s hitting the ball arduous, Alvarez replied: “Outs.” He was requested if his swing feels good mechanically.
“I may inform you that it’s good, but when the outcomes are usually not there, then it’s not good,” Alvarez mentioned. “We’re simply attempting to determine it out proper now.”
Elsewhere within the story, Alvarez dismissed supervisor Joe Espada’s opinion that he’s near breaking out, saying, “Till the numbers go up, there’s nothing shut.”
Alvarez is hardly the one participant who’s mired under alternative degree so far. Among the many 165 batting title qualifiers, 38 (23%) are at or under 0.0 WAR, and on the 80-PA threshold, the share rises to 26%. What follows here’s a check-in on 5 others who’re in the same boat, 4 of whom are highlighted within the wRC+ desk above. They’re good-to-great gamers off to unhealthy begins; three of them joined Alvarez ultimately 12 months’s All-Star Sport, and three signed notable free agent contracts this previous offseason, considered one of them for a nine-figure quantity. For this, I restricted my choice to gamers who produced not less than 3.0 WAR in 300 plate appearances final 12 months and have reached that 80-PA threshold; whereas I used to be fairly strict when it got here to specializing in WAR marks under zero, I made one notable exception. Nonetheless, there are way more such gamers than I can cram right into a single piece. I’ve listed those right here in alphabetical order.
Willy Adames, Giants (71 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)
Adames had a profession 12 months at simply the suitable time. In 2024, he set private bests in homers (32), steals (21), and WAR (4.8) whereas practically doing so in wRC+ (119) as nicely. Not solely did his .251/.331/.462 slashline symbolize a big step up from a subpar 2023 (.217/.310/.407, 94 wRC+), however he hit free company at simply the suitable time to pocket a seven-year, $182 million contract from the Giants.
Up to now, Adames’ transfer westward has not labored out nicely; his efficiency has been a internet adverse on a workforce that’s jumped out to a 19-12 begin. He’s hit simply .208/.292/.301, with a barrel price that’s dropped from 12% to eight.9%. Whereas his 88.6-mph common exit velo is on par with final 12 months and his 43.3% hard-hit price is a pair factors higher, his xSLG has dropped from .461 to .388 — nonetheless nicely forward of his precise efficiency. Previous to becoming a member of the Giants, he had an enormous reverse platoon break up over the course of his profession, with a 117 wRC+ in opposition to righties and a 91 in opposition to lefties; this 12 months, he’s by some means hit .103/.163/.103 (-21 wRC+) in 43 PA in opposition to lefties, in comparison with .259/.351/.395 (113 wRC+) in opposition to righties.
Adames’ troubles prolong to the sector. The underside already fell out of his protection final 12 months, not less than based mostly on his drop from 12 FRV and eight DRS in 2023 to 0 FRV and -16 DRS in ’24. This 12 months, in only a month’s time, he’s already at -4 FRV and -7 DRS. I wouldn’t put a lot inventory in such a small pattern if it weren’t preceded by these regarding 2024 metrics, however I do ponder whether it’s merely been a matter of determining how you can greatest match alongside third baseman Matt Chapman, a five-time Gold Glove winner.
Alec Bohm, Phillies (45 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)
Although he’s by no means hit in addition to he did throughout his 2020 rookie season (which was simply 44 video games lengthy), Bohm has developed right into a stable participant for the Phillies, enhancing his protection from dreadful to common whereas offering above-average offensive manufacturing. Final 12 months, he made his first All-Star workforce whereas setting profession highs in WAR (3.5) and wRC+ (115), batting .280/.332/.448 with 15 homers.
Bohm’s off to a .221/.252/.274 begin. Usually a really aggressive hitter with distinctive contact abilities, he’s reduce his swinging strike price from 7.6% to six%, however he’s hanging out extra usually (17.6%, up from 14.2%) whereas strolling simply 2.6% of the time, about 4 factors under his norm. His SEAGER has dropped from the 72nd percentile to the twenty ninth, that means that when he’s swinging, he’s not doing so on pitches the place he can do essentially the most injury.
These selections have translated right into a failure to launch. Bohm’s groundball price has elevated from 46% to 50.5%, together with his fly ball price dropping by the same quantity; his common launch angle has decreased from 9.8 levels to five.4. So although his 91.3 mph common exit velo, 8.6% barrel price, and 49.5% hard-hit price all symbolize enhancements from final season, he’s collected simply 5 extra-base hits and has but to homer. That mentioned, he’s additionally been not less than considerably unfortunate, as he’s 124 factors wanting his .398 xSLG.
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (91 wRC+, 0.1 WAR)
Technically, Henderson isn’t under alternative degree, nevertheless it’s solely been the previous few days the place he’s gotten his head above water. I selected to incorporate him right here as a result of he had by far the very best 2024 WAR (8.0, fourth within the majors) of any participant even within the neighborhood of zero WAR. He’s hitting .228/.268/.413, which is a large enough step down from final 12 months’s .281/.364/.529 (155 wRC+) that he cracked the desk above, however issues might be even worse; every week in the past, he was batting .203/.247/.377 (73 wRC+) earlier than reeling off a six-game hitting streak, with three of his seven hits going for further bases. Look out, Joe DiMaggio.
It’s price remembering that Henderson missed practically the entire Grapefruit League season because of an intercostal pressure that he suffered on February 27. He started the common season on the injured record and didn’t make his debut till April 4, the Orioles’ eighth recreation. Since being activated, he’s truly been scorching the ball — when he’s made contact. Whereas he barreled only one ball out of the 26 he put into play throughout his first 10 video games, he averaged 99.3 mph on these BBEs, with a 69.2% hard-hit price; sadly, he additionally struck out in 37.2% of his 43 plate appearances throughout that span, suggesting he was a bit rusty. Presently, he’s as much as a 95.7 mph common exit velo, which locations him within the 99th percentile; his 56.9% hard-hit price is within the ninety fifth percentile, however his 9.2% barrel price is in simply the 53rd, down from the 76th percentile final 12 months. Mainly, he’s hitting too many grounders (50.8%, up 4 factors from final 12 months) and hanging out too usually (27.8%, up 5.7 factors from final 12 months) whereas strolling simply 5.2% of the time, a bit under half of final 12 months’s price. That mentioned, he’s trending upwards in most of these areas; if there’s one participant inside this group I imagine has already turned the nook, it’s him.
Joc Pederson, Rangers (12 wRC+, -0.8 WAR)
Pederson put in a potent season as a platoon DH for the Diamondbacks, hitting .275/.393/.515 with 23 homers, and setting profession bests in OBP and wRC+ (151) whereas handing over 3.0 WAR. The Rangers signed him to a two-year, $37 million deal, hoping he may present comparable manufacturing, however he’s completed simply the alternative. After accumulating his first hit as a Ranger within the workforce’s second recreation, he endured an epic 0-for-41 drought, offset by simply three walks. He went three weeks between hits, lastly ending the slide with a pinch-hit double off the A’s Mason Miller on April 23. On Sunday, he lastly loved his first multi-hit recreation of the season. General, he’s batting .108/.205/.176 by way of 84 plate appearances; amongst gamers with not less than 80 PA, solely Massey (11 wRC+) and Candelario (10 wRC+) have been worse.
Even throughout his streak, Pederson averaged 91.5 mph on his batted ball occasions, however he struck out 31% of the time, and 57.7% of these batted balls had been grounders. General, his 51.9% groundball price is over 11 factors above his profession norm, whereas his 5.5% barrel price is about half his ordinary price, and his 16.7% pulled air price about 4 factors under his profession mark and 10 factors under final 12 months. He’s chasing lower than ordinary (23.3%), however his SEAGER has dropped from the 83rd percentile to the forty ninth. He has proven indicators of life currently, with 5 hits in his final 16 at-bats, three of them for further bases (together with the double off of Miller), however that slash line is gonna look fairly grim for some time.
Anthony Santander, Blue Jays (66 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)
Like Adames, Santander picked a fantastic time for a profession 12 months, as he set full-season bests in homers (44), WAR (3.3) and wRC+ (129), whereas hitting .235/.308/.506 for the Orioles and making his first All-Star workforce earlier than turning into a free agent. He parlayed his efficiency right into a five-year, $92.5 million take care of the Blue Jays, nevertheless it doesn’t seem that his offense made the transfer north. Even with a giant three-run homer in opposition to the Purple Sox on Wednesday evening — simply his fourth of the season — Santander is hitting simply .175/.258/.316.
Like Bohm, Santander is having some bother attaining liftoff. His groundball price has spiked from 30.8% to 38.1%, and his common launch angle has fallen from 22.7 levels to fifteen.2. His barrel price has plummeted from 11.7% to six%, and his xSLG has fallen from .445 to .327.
Santander has a fame as a gradual starter throughout his nine-year profession, as he’s hit for simply an 82 wRC+ in March and April, in comparison with a 111 wRC+ in the remainder of the season. What significantly stands out as I dig by way of his numbers is a disconcerting development in relation to four-seamers. In 2023, he hit .263 and slugged .556 in opposition to them, however final 12 months he dipped to a .196 AVG and .431 SLG, and this 12 months to a .128 AVG and .231 SLG; his whiff price on these pitches has elevated from 21.5% to 34.1%. In the meantime, he’s a mixed 3-for-31 in opposition to changeups and sliders; he dealt with the previous moderately nicely final 12 months however not the latter.
Once more, there’s no scarcity of different gamers I may have included inside this grotesque tour by way of Small Pattern Theater, together with among the different gamers within the wRC+ desk above reminiscent of Diaz and Ortiz, each of whom not less than play key defensive positions. The Rangers’ Marcus Semien, whom I checked in on final week, has hits in his final 5 video games and has raised his wRC+ from 17 to 47 (.182/.258/.245) thanks largely to the A’s pitching employees. For a lot of of those gamers, it might be only a matter of fattening up their slashlines in opposition to among the league’s weaker pitching staffs.
