David Butler II-Imagn Pictures
CEDDANNE RAFAELA can leap. He can certain up and over a excessive outfield wall to rob a house run. He can leap ahead to safe a ball that in any other case would have fallen out of his attain. He can spring up like a cat to show a double play after laying out for a catch. However none of these jumps are the type I’m referring to. I’m speaking about this:
Within the GIF you simply watched, Rafaela travels greater than 100 toes in lower than 5 seconds to rob Bo bichette of additional bases. It’s a shocking catch. It will have been a troublesome sufficient play for the Gold Glove winner in proper discipline, not to mention for Rafaela coming over from heart. That ball had an anticipated batting common of .820 off the bat, and simply look how far-off Wilyer Abreu is when he realizes all he can do is again off and let his teammate work his magic. You don’t want Statcast to let you know that’s a five-star catch, and it stands out even among the many 9 five-star catches we’ve seen this yr. It was one among solely three with a catch chance of 5%.
Rafaela’s slide into the outfield wall, the best way he raised his glove in triumph, and the truth that this occurred on the primary pitch of the sport make this an endlessly rewatchable spotlight. But, what actually makes this catch so spectacular is the sheer quantity of floor he needed to cowl earlier than he might even contemplate reaching out for the ball. It’s not that he crashed into the Wasabi check in proper discipline, however that he was anyplace near the signal to start with. In different phrases, it’s all about his leap.
Baseball Savant defines “outfielder leap” because the variety of toes above or beneath common that an outfielder travels within the correct route within the first three seconds after a pitch is launched, on performs with a catch chance of 90% or tougher (two-star or above). It’s a beneficial metric as a result of it measures a ability that’s nearly inconceivable for followers to evaluate with the attention take a look at alone. Most of us watch most of our baseball on TV, a medium that often prevents us from seeing the place the outfielders are standing in the intervening time every pitch is launched. Except you’re watching a well-framed replay of a blinding catch (just like the one above), it’s uncommon that you simply’ll see an outfielder’s preliminary response to a ball coming his method. So, outfielder leap is one among my favourite Statcast instruments. If Rafaela frequents Baseball Savant, I’ve a sense it’s one among his favorites too:
2025 Outfielder Leap Leaders
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
To this point in 2025, Rafaela is the league chief in outfielder leap, and it’s not notably shut. At 6.2 toes above common, his leap is longer than the median top of a significant league participant. Consider it this fashion: If Rafaela and a league-average outfield jumper had been each operating for a similar ball from the identical start line, it could solely take three seconds for Rafaela to realize a lot floor that Mike Trout might comfortably lie down between the 2 outfielders. What’s extra, Rafaela’s common leap places him 1.4 toes forward of the subsequent finest jumper, Johan Rojas. Greater than half of certified outfielders fall inside 1.4 toes of league common, in both route. Rafaela’s jumps have been at the very least 1.4 toes higher than the these of everybody else. The small-sample-size caveat that we tack on to nearly each article in April definitely applies right here, but when we will marvel at what Randy Rodríguez is doing, we will marvel at Rafaela’s accomplishments too. Sustainable or not, nobody lucks into an incredible outfield leap. You’ll be able to both transfer that quick or you may’t. And Rafaela can.
Having stated that, Rafaela’s pace is definitely one thing of an enigma. One motive I discover his leap numbers so fascinating is that, whereas he’s quick, I’ve by no means thought-about him a first-rate speedster. His 28.3 ft/sec dash pace ranks within the 84th percentile this season. He has compiled simply 1.8 baserunning runs (BsR) via 201 profession video games. In his prospect days, evaluators disagreed about whether or not his pace was actually elite (70 FV) or nearer to plus (60 FV). Right here at FanGraphs, Eric Longenhagen gave Rafaela a 60 grade in 2023 earlier than upping it to 70 a yr later. As these differing grades recommend, measuring pace is extra nuanced than one would possibly suppose.
Courting again to his debut season in 2023, Rafaela ranks 72nd in dash pace amongst certified runners (min. 10 aggressive runs), placing him within the 84th percentile. In comparison with his fellow heart fieldershe ranks twenty third, simply barely touchdown him within the prime half of qualifiers on the place. Nevertheless, his common time from residence to first base ranks within the ninety fifth percentile of baserunners. That’s a pronounced distinction, particularly for a right-handed batter; most gamers whose residence to first rankings are considerably higher than their dash pace rankings are lefties who’ve the benefit of their batter’s field being nearer to first base. Over the previous three seasons, solely 4 right-handed hitting outfielders have a house to first time as quick as Rafaela’s: Brandon Lockridge, Dairon Blanco, Byron Buxtonand Myles Straw.
In keeping with dash pace, Rafaela is at the very least half a foot per second slower than any of these 4. He trails even additional behind in “bolts,” which Statcast defines as any run that clocks in above 30 ft/sec. Lockridge and Blanco have bolted in additional than half of their aggressive runs. Buxton and Straw have bolted in about 20% of their aggressive runs. In the meantime, Rafaela has solely bolted twice in his profession. That’s lower than 1% of his aggressive runs. Since 2023, just one participant on the Baseball Savant leaderboard has a better dash pace and a decrease bolt fee: Cubs rookie Matt Shawwho has solely performed 18 profession video games.
So, Rafaela doesn’t attain the identical most speeds as the blokes we consider as elite runners, however he nonetheless covers floor — on the bases and within the discipline – sooner than most different gamers. Fast reactions and a capability to take care of his pace over a number of seconds, two issues measured by outfielder leap, might assist clarify why. One factor we will say for sure is that it doesn’t have something to do with operating environment friendly routes. Outfielder leap may be cut up into three parts: “response” (toes coated in any route through the first 1.5 seconds after pitch launch), “burst” (toes coated in any route through the subsequent 1.5 seconds), and “route” (toes coated in opposition to essentially the most direct path to the ball within the first three seconds). Rafaela leads the league in every of the primary two parts. His routes, nevertheless, put him among the many backside 10 certified outfielders. That’s clearly not an issue. In truth, as Davy Andrews discovered a couple of years in the past, a excessive route rating is negatively correlated with OAA. As a rule, operating as rapidly as attainable as quickly as attainable is simpler than operating within the actual proper route. Rafaela is the proof within the pudding.
To that finish, if Rafaela has any type of pace downside, it is perhaps getting the place he’s going too rapidly. On this linked play from final season, he was about an inch or two previous the place he wanted to be when the ball reached his glove. It got here bouncing off his wrist, and inertia carried him into the wall. Right here’s an instance from this yr of one other play that despatched him crashing into the fence. He didn’t give himself time to decelerate, and a ball he might have performed off the wall changed into an embarrassing mistake:
Now comes the half you’ve been dreading: I’ve no alternative however to let you know that Rafaela’s early-season leap numbers are unsustainable. In 2024, he was among the finest jumpers within the majors, very similar to he’s proper now. He ranked fourth amongst certified fielders. His common leap final yr? 3.3 toes above common. That’s solely barely greater than half of his present leap rating. Outfield leap dates again to 2016, and in that point, no participant (min. 10 alternatives) has ever completed a season with an outfield leap above six toes. No certified outfielder (extra two-star alternatives than workforce video games divided by 5) has ever completed with an outfield leap above 5 toes:
Single-Season Outfield Leap Leaders (2016-2024)
*Certified season
With all due respect to Rafaela, it’s arduous to consider he’ll proceed to be this significantly better than some other main league outfielder from the previous 10 seasons. That stated, his common leap might drop by greater than a foot, and he’d nonetheless have an opportunity to complete with the very best outfield leap numbers we’ve ever seen from a professional participant. Since he emerged as a prime prospect through the 2022 marketing campaign, evaluators have had nothing however the highest of reward for Rafaela’s heart discipline protection. The workforce at Baseball America particularly took word of his jumps when rating him on the publication’s prime 100 record in 2023, writing: “Rafaela’s nice jumps positioned him as among the finest defensive heart fielders in professional ball.”
Rafaela lived as much as these excessive expectations in his transient cup of espresso that yr. His common leap in 2023 was a ridiculous 6.9 toes above common in seven alternatives. That’s compelling proof that what we’ve seen this yr, in one other seven alternatives, isn’t only a fluke. As for his decrease leap rating in 2024, he has a reasonably good excuse. Rafaela solely began enjoying the outfield in 2021, and 2022 was the primary yr he performed greater than half of his video games in heart discipline. Whereas he performed a bit extra infield on the massive league degree in 2023, he nonetheless spent the vast majority of his time within the outfield that season. In 2024, nevertheless, Rafaela performed extra innings at shortstop than at some other place, whereas additionally seeing time at second and third base.
Alex Cora acknowledged that what the Pink Sox had been asking of Rafaela was holding him again from reaching his full defensive potential. “We all know how good he may be at quick. We all know how nice he’s in heart discipline,” the skipper instructed reporters. “However the transferring round, it takes away from good jumps and being engaged.” Given the context, it appears Cora was speaking extra about Rafaela’s instincts struggling at shortstop than in heart. Nonetheless, the purpose stays: Taking part in a number of positions can take a toll on a participant. Now that Rafaela is completely enjoying heart discipline for the primary time in his profession, it’s not unreasonable to suppose he might get higher jumps than ever.
By way of 20 video games this season, Rafaela has already compiled 4 DRS, 3 OAA, and three FRV. He has been nothing wanting pleasant to observe within the outfield. Sadly, the identical can’t be stated of his efficiency on the plate. His self-discipline has been higher – his walks are up and his strikeouts are down – however he’s sending too many balls into the bottom. Over 74 journeys to the plate, he’s hit just one double, one triple, and one residence run. A Fortieth-percentile xwOBA suggests he might be extra productive going ahead, nevertheless it’s arduous to look previous his 67 wRC+. Will probably be even tougher for the Pink Sox to look previous after they have higher choices out there. If/when Masataka Yoshida returns from the IL and/or Roman Anthony forces his option to the present, Rafaela’s glove may not be ample to earn him common enjoying time if his bat doesn’t come round. So, be sure that to understand his unbelievable jumps when you can, and hopefully, he’ll begin hitting sufficient that we get to take pleasure in his protection for an entire lot longer.
