Brad Mills-Imagn Pictures
Do you bear in mind the scene from The Benchwarmers when Clark is as much as bat, besides that he’s completely nowhere close to the plate? Again once I used to catch and would see hitters arrange method off the plate, that was all the time the picture that popped into my head. After an inner snicker, I’d give my signal, then take one huge facet step to the other facet of the place the hitter was standing to verify my pitcher didn’t come near fixating on the internal half. Until you’re swinging a 40-inch bat and concurrently have the energy of Giancarlo Stantonyou’re not making good contact on something away. Gabriel Arias is a main instance of this.
In 2025, there hasn’t been a single hitter who stands farther from the plate than Arias. It is a comparatively new excessive. Since 2023, Arias has moved farther and farther from the plate, beginning at 31.9 inches in 2023, to 33.0 in 2024, to a league-leading 35.4 this season. For context, let’s take a snapshot of the 2025 leaders:
Distance off Plate Leaders
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Most of those gamers are on the very tall facet. That’s to not say you need to be tall to face off the plate, but when the purpose is to verify your barrel aligns with the guts of the plate, it could make sense that the taller gamers are those who, usually, would profit from having extra space between the plate and the place they arrange. Conversely, when shorter gamers arrange far off the plate, they improve the world they should cowl with their swings whereas missing the size to take action.
That appears to be what’s occurring with Arias, who regardless of being among the many shorter gamers on this listing, is standing almost two extra inches off the plate than the following man, Paul Goldschmidt, and almost three extra inches off it than Aaron Decide, who’s six inches taller than the Guardians infielder. How can Arias probably attain pitches on the outer third of the plate? Right here is an instance from a recreation final week:
If I had any video enhancing expertise, I’d overlay Clark as a comparability to spotlight simply how far that is. It’s an fascinating technique that must be reasoned out. Regardless of his energy potential, Arias entered 2025 with a profession 74 wRC+, so it’s comprehensible he would wish to make some adjustments. Organising even farther away, although, appeared like a weird selection, given his common top for a ballplayer and the best way it could expose him to exterior pitches. Initially, I believed the brand new setup would damage him greater than it could assist. I imply, why would pitchers ever throw him a pitch over the internal third? However then I seen Arias’ wRC+ is greater this season than it was in 2023 and 2024, as much as 88 as of Thursday morning, which continues to be fairly unhealthy however represents a large enchancment nonetheless. Possibly he was on to one thing in spite of everything.
To see what’s happening right here, let’s first zoom in on how this alteration is enjoying out on a zone-by-zone foundation. In 2023 and 2024, Arias’ xwOBA towards pitches on the outer third was .224 and .248, respectively, placing him close to the underside of the league. That quantity is almost the identical this yr, at .235. I’m shocked it hasn’t gotten worse. The place he’s standing, the skin nook would possibly as effectively be Narnia.
My greatest guess for why he’s establishing farther away is he wished to have a greater shot at damaging inside pitches. Maybe he usually felt handcuffed and thought transferring off the plate would give him extra space to get his barrel on aircraft and make it simpler for him to raise pitches. How’s that figuring out for him?
Arias Internal-Third Efficiency
Season
wOBA
xwOBA
Whiff%
Onerous-Hit%
Candy-Spot%
2023
.262
.306
27.0
49.2
28.8
2024
.319
.245
28.8
38.9
16.7
2025
.362
.401
21.5
54.1
37.8
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
OK, now we’re speaking. In his earlier two seasons, he was not aggressive towards pitches on the internal third. He was each whiffing loads and never balancing it out with a ton of hard-hit balls. This yr, he’s flipped the script by whiffing much less and hitting the ball arduous extra usually.
On prime of that, he’s making sweet-spot contact at a powerful fee, serving to him pull off a .436 xwOBACON on the internal third. In fact, that solely accounts for his efficiency towards pitches to one-third of the zone, nevertheless it’s nonetheless an enchancment that has propelled his offensive efficiency from unplayable to bearable.
In some unspecified time in the future, although, pitchers are going to have alter, proper? They will now not beat him inside like they did earlier than, however there’s a big chunk of the zone nonetheless accessible to them. And that space is likely to be bigger than simply the outer third. As a result of Arias is standing thus far off the plate and trying to activate inside pitches, he may additionally have a tricky time masking not less than some pitches over the center, too.
Hitters who shift farther away from the plate ought to nonetheless have the ability to crush middle-middle pitches, however relying on how their swing works, it might be troublesome for them to achieve both excessive or low pitches over the center. Earlier than diving into how Arias’ swing works, let’s see if the info inform us a bit extra about that:
Arias Center-Third Efficiency
Zone
Season
wOBA
xwOBA
Whiff%
Onerous-Hit%
Low-Center
2023
.313
.392
23.1
58.3
2024
.289
.474
17.9
44.4
2025
.578
.497
29.5
60.0
Center-Center
2023
.456
.461
26.9
69.0
2024
.465
.424
18.2
63.2
2025
.264
.387
31.8
56.3
Higher-Center
2023
.373
.395
43.7
75.0
2024
.366
.394
50.0
75.0
2025
.053
.182
46.5
33.3
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
As anticipated, Arias’ new location within the field has created one other gap over the center third of the plate. His .053 wOBA and .182 xwOBA up prime are completely brutal beneath any circumstances, however they’re particularly jarring in comparison with his .366/.394 from final season. The drop-off alone isn’t solely unusual due to the small pattern sizes when taking a look at one-ninth of the zone, however to go from above common to fourth worst in baseball is hard. His numbers have additionally declined on middle-middle pitches. The .123 margin between his wOBA and xwOBA says unhealthy luck could also be concerned, however there are various hitters with a lot wider gaps between their precise numbers and their anticipated one. Nonetheless, it’s additionally fascinating to see Arias’ enchancment on low-middle pitches. He’s all the time been good towards these pitches, however now he’s demolishing them much more regularly than earlier than.
Even so, that leaves a large space for opposing pitchers to focus on, and their pitch combine to get Arias out ought to be pretty easy: Overwhelm him with heaters up, then put him away with smooth stuff exterior. He has a .177 xwOBA towards offspeed pitches and a .234 xwOBA towards breaking balls this season. These numbers are even worse on the outer third, with a .127 xwOBA towards offspeed and a .128 xwOBA towards breakers. To date, pitchers don’t appear to be giving him a noticeably totally different pitch combine in comparison with how they attacked him in different seasons, and even earlier this yr, however they’re undoubtedly beginning to throw extra offspeed pitches to places which are farther away. Possibly they’re catching on, possibly not. Time will inform.
Right here is a few video of swings he’s taken towards outer-third pitches:
Virtually the whole lot is off the tip of the bat. Any right-handed pitcher that may find away goes to have a superb shot at beating Arias. In virtually all of those clips, he’s making contact off the tip of the bat and/or swinging off steadiness. His closed stride helps him cowl pitches which are nearer to the center — just like the one from Carlos Rodón within the closing GIF above — as a result of his swing path is transferring extra towards the guts of the plate, however his barrel doesn’t keep within the hitting zone on an upward trajectory lengthy sufficient to have a lot room for error. So until he completely occasions his swing to attach with these pitches over the center, he’s both not going to sq. them up or he’ll miss them altogether.
It’s clear Arias is making an attempt to maximise his strengths, damaging inner-third and low-middle pitches, even when it means making his weaknesses even worse. To date, that trade-off is working for him. Though he stays beneath common on the plate, he’s a greater hitter now than he was earlier than; that enchancment is sufficient for him to be a invaluable participant general as a result of he’s a superb defender at a number of infield positions and he runs the bases effectively. However we’re solely a 3rd of the best way by means of the season, and I’ve my doubts about how sustainable this will likely be for him. The holes in his plate protection ought to be massive sufficient for main league pitchers to use. If (learn: when) that occurs, Arias goes to should punish each location mistake they make, which is troublesome for even essentially the most gifted of hitters, or he’s going to should proceed to refine his recreation. Possibly which means closing off his stride much more to get to extra pitches over the center, or altering his swing to stay on an upward trajectory by means of the zone for an extended time frame. If his present setup proves to be too excessive, he can all the time slide ever so barely nearer to the plate. Not an excessive amount of, simply sufficient to cowl a bit extra of the zone with out compromising his skill to activate inner-third pitches.
However we’re not there but. An important factor to remove from that is Arias has proven he could make a reasonably drastic adjustment and have it work as supposed. So when pitchers inevitably alter to him, maybe he can do it once more.
