Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
With the 2025 NFL season simply across the nook, it is time to assess how profitable — or how unsuccessful — groups shall be this upcoming season.
There are two groups whose win totals stood out to me specifically: the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Giants.
And primarily based on what we find out about these groups from final yr and their offseason strikes, I am able to throw down some money on these Niners and Giants.
Let’s check out what I believe their regular-season win totals shall be.
San Francisco 49ers Over/Underneath 10.5 wins
The 49ers’ schedule, together with some optimistic harm regression, has Kyle Shanahan’s squad attempting for the 1-seed this season. The 49ers gained six video games final yr, regardless of a roster full of accidents. Star working again Christian McCaffrey performed in simply 4 video games. Huge receiver Brandon Aiyuk appeared in simply seven video games. All-Professional left sort out Trent Williams performed solely 10 video games.
On protection, security Talanoa Hufanga additionally performed in simply seven video games, and defensive sort out Javon Hargrave made it onto the sphere for less than three video games. The checklist goes on and on.
The 49ers have been unlucky with their harm luck final season. Harm luck is a type of issues that we see regression to the imply the next season. If a group is beat up one season, they typically come again wholesome the next yr. The 49ers’ roster is top-heavy, however when wholesome, it’s laborious to not marvel on the expertise.
They’ve a top-tier working again, left sort out, extensive receivers, move rush, center linebacker and an excellent cornerback. The Niners boast extra playmakers than most of their opponents, which is a crucial think about predicting win totals. Add in quarterback Brock Purdy, who’s strong, predictable and environment friendly within the Niners’ well-above-average offense.
The 49ers’ schedule this season units them up for achievement. They’ll play their six divisional video games and can probably be favored in at the least 4, possibly 5, particularly once they host the Rams. The 49ers — and the remainder of the NFC West — should play each South divisions of their rotational schedule. These divisions are the worst on paper within the NFL. Their recreation at Houston is without doubt one of the few matchups the place they is likely to be underdogs this season.
For the reason that 49ers completed in final place within the division final yr, they spherical out their schedule with three video games in opposition to groups that additionally completed in final place in 2024. This contains the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and Chicago Bears. The 49ers ought to find yourself being favored in 15 of their 17 video games.
The mixture of San Fran’s expertise, some harm regression to the imply and its favorable schedule signifies that squad ought to win at the least 11 video games this season.
PICK: San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 wins
Will Brock Purdy lead the 49ers to the Tremendous Bowl this yr?
New York Giants Over/Underneath 5.5 wins
The New York Giants have three substances that I typically view as the explanation why groups go Over their win whole. The primary, as talked about above, is harm regression to the imply.
The second is the results of one-score video games. The Giants have been 1-8 in these video games final season, and the next season that tends to reverse. It is unlikely a group is 8-1 in one-score video games, however they shift from 1-8 to someplace round 4-5 or 5-4. That’s an enormous distinction within the general results of a season.
The third issue is a quarterback improve. I’m not excessive on Russell Wilson normally, however he’s nonetheless higher than the Giants’ quarterback scenario from final season.
So, the Giants meet a lot of the standards I’d use for choosing a group to go Over their win whole.
Nonetheless, they’ve one of many hardest schedules within the NFL, and I’m not sure they’re going to come out of October with greater than a single win. Actually, they’d be lucky to be favored in a couple of recreation this season.
Right here’s the primary two months of their season: They open at Washington and Dallas, then host the Chiefs and Chargers. After that, a visit to New Orleans, adopted by two video games in opposition to the Eagles, with the Broncos sandwiched in between. They begin November with the 49ers, then face the Bears, Packers and Lions — oh my! They will be an underdog in each recreation, and presumably a decide in New Orleans.
In order that poor document in shut video games might not even matter this season, as they might discover themselves down by double digits late in video games. Once they begin gradual, the teaching employees might rapidly flip to Jaxson Dart, who is not able to be a starter but. New York’s season goes to spiral uncontrolled rapidly. So I’m going with the Giants Underneath 5.5 wins.
PICK: New York Giants Underneath 5.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper sort out for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior yr. Observe him on Twitter @Geoffschwartz.
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