Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Photos
“I’m so sick of this friggin’ man,” is among the biggest compliments one will pay an opposing athlete. And the Dodgers should be sick to loss of life of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs and Dodgers, who opened the season collectively in Japan, simply performed 5 video games within the span of 13 days to finish their season collection. In these 5 video games, Crow-Armstrong did his regular speed-and-defense act, however he additionally went 10-for-22 with 4 house runs.
Within the two-game collection that simply ended, PCA went 3-for-5 with a house run and a double within the first sport, and 3-for-4 with a house run and two stolen bases within the second. The Cubs gained every sport by one run; I don’t assume it’s in any respect unfair to say that in a collection that featured the Dodgers’ vaunted three-MVP lineup, plus Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernándezand a partridge in a pear tree, it was the younger PCA who singlehandedly turned the tide.
Crow-Armstrong was a well-known prospect as a result of he has a memorable identify and backstory, and he obtained drafted by the Mets, a group whose followers will not be solely quite a few and loud, however tremendous duper regular about their prospects. Crow-Armstrong was a very good prospect as a result of he’s a plus-plus runner with a plus-plus glove in middle discipline, and middle fielders who can put up 20 runs of mixed baserunning and defensive worth in a season will be league-average starters even when they don’t hit just a little.
If all that sounds acquainted, I’m flattered, as a result of it means you bear in mind one thing I wrote manner again in September. Again then, Crow-Armstrong was within the midst of a sizzling streak. Early within the season, he’d been a poor hitter, however he modified his stance and swing halfway via the season and improved his offense considerably.
I truly wrote about any such swing and strategy change earlier this week with respect to Cedric Mullins. Crow-Armstrong is listed at 6-foot tall and 184 kilos, and whereas these dimensions belie the working again’s physique he’s grown into, PCA continues to be a small(ish) quick man. Typical knowledge says that small, quick guys — particularly left-handed ones — ought to gear their swings for contact to be able to take biggest benefit of their legs. You’ll be able to beat out a weak grounder and switch a single right into a double by stealing second, however you’ll be able to’t run your manner out of a strikeout.
That logic is affordable sufficient, however Mullins has made his biggest leaps as a participant when he’s rejected the short-and-fast-guy strategy and began swinging like the massive canine. PCA is in the midst of speedrunning the Mullins developmental curve, cramming about 5 years’ price of evolution into 9 months.
What does that imply from a sensible standpoint? Nicely, first-half PCA was like a Billy Hamilton or a Jacob Younger — an incredible man to have within the discipline, however somebody you must disguise on the backside of the lineup. Second-half PCA was like a wealthy man’s Kevin Kiermaier or a sooner Jackie Bradley Jr. — an above-average hitter who nestles up in opposition to All-Star-level complete worth due to bonkers protection at a premium place.
PCA’s Rampage of Vengeance
Season
BB%
Okay%
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
1st Half 2024
4.6%
25.9%
.261
.203
.253
.329
64
2nd Half 2024
5.5%
22.5%
.314
.262
.310
.425
104
2025
5.4%
23.4%
.352
.294
.339
.549
146
Take a look at that from the Cubs’ perspective. This can be a participant they obtained in a rental commerce for Javier Báez, who triggered a serious disaster for the Mets by answering a query truthfullythen went on to signal with the Tigers. (And since we’re telling harsh truths in the intervening time, in the event you requested me which group screwed up the worst by signing a member of the 2016 Cubs, I’d need to assume a minute earlier than answering: The Rockies and Kris Bryant.)
Crow-Armstrong solidifies Chicago’s elite up-the-middle protection with Swanson and Nico Hoernerand for the reason that Cubs have Tucker, Ian Happand Seiya Suzuki to hold the offensive burden, they’ll get by simply fantastic if PCA is merely a very good no. 7 hitter or what have you ever.
However via 26 video games, PCA has a 146 wRC+. Over a full season, that might’ve put him between Ketel Mars and Bryce Harper on the leaderboard in 2024. That will render the Kiermaier comp just about irrelevant, as a result of I don’t assume Kiermaier may do this in his prime with a steel bat.
Again in September, essentially the most optimistic appraisal of Crow-Armstrong’s offense that I may think about was a wRC+ within the 120s, which might’ve translated to about 6 WAR on a per-season foundation, given his protection. Peak Lorenzo Cain was the instance I used on the time.
However what’s the subsequent step? Nicely, since 2000, there are 540 particular person participant seasons through which a participant certified for the batting title whereas primarily enjoying middle discipline. In 48 of these circumstances, the participant in query registered not less than 15 runs of defensive worth. Once I sorted the leaderboard, Franklin Gutierrez’s 2009 marketing campaign whistled to the highest, as if to remind me that defensive stats had been a bit wonky within the not-too-distant previous. However, you’ll like this subsequent half.
Crow-Armstrong’s wOBA at the moment sits at .384. Solely 5 of these mondo defensive seasons got here with a wOBA of .380 or greater.
The Most Optimistic PCA Comps
Season
Title
G
PA
HR
SB
AVG
OBP
SLG
wOBA
BsR
Off
Def
WAR
2011
Jacoby Ellsbury
158
732
32
39
.321
.376
.552
.400
5.1
47.5
18.0
9.5
2007
Curtis Granderson
158
676
23
26
.302
.361
.552
.388
9.9
40.0
17.5
7.9
2000
Andruw Jones
161
729
36
21
.303
.366
.541
.387
1.5
28.7
27.5
7.7
2006
Grady Sizemore
162
751
28
22
.290
.375
.533
.383
9.2
40.5
15.2
7.9
2005
Andruw Jones
160
672
51
5
.263
.347
.575
.383
-0.9
27.9
28.5
7.9
Strive to focus on how good Ellsbury and Sizemore had been on the time, and never the truth that they each had their careers minimize quick by damage.
You bought the vapors proper now? I’ve obtained the vapors. This may very well be the second a enjoyable participant turns right into a future MVP, proper? I imply, we haven’t seen a two-way middle fielder like this in additional than a decade.
Crow-Armstrong’s efficiency this season has been thrilling, particularly after he did the rattling factor in a giant collection in opposition to the heavy World Collection favourite. In a special sport, the previous two weeks would’ve modified world notion about this participant.
Sadly, I’ve to pump the brakes barely. Definitely, Crow-Armstrong beating the brains out of the Dodgers is nothing however a optimistic indicator, however I’d cease in need of saying that it proves he has That Dawg In Him or something like that. Particularly as a result of his underlying numbers, whereas nonetheless spectacular, don’t precisely again up the Zoomer Grady Sizemore comp.
A Bucket of Lukewarm Water
Season
wOBA
xwOBA
Whiff%
HardHit%
GB/FB
Pull Air%
Chase%
Meatball Swing%
1st Half 2024
.255
.246
28.6
28.8
1.05
15.0%
44.1
79.4
2nd Half 2024
.315
.307
31.0
42.5
0.78
19.5%
39.3
85.9
2025
.384
.311
22.0
39.7
0.63
21.8%
37.9
90.9
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Even taking essentially the most conservative view of PCA’s efficiency, I might say that he’s solidified the offensive positive factors he made within the second half of 2024. He’s a flat-out higher hitter than somebody like Younger or… I used to be about to say Brenton Doyle however he’s additionally tearing the duvet off the ball in the intervening time, so perhaps I’ll verify in on him later.
However slightly than backing up Crow-Armstrong as a true-talent .380 wOBA man, in keeping with xwOBA, PCA is kind of the identical hitter he was eight months in the past. Even since then, he’s making extra contact and higher swing selections, so I’ve no downside believing that there’s one other stage in there. He’s simply not fairly pretty much as good as his floor stats point out thus far this 12 months.
All of that’s absolutely of no consolation to the Dodgers, who could be not less than two video games higher off if Crow-Armstrong had determined to regress to the imply a pair weeks earlier. Is he a star? We’ll see. However he’s undoubtedly produced some star moments.
