Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Photos
Over the previous month, each red-blooded American with a cellphone and a passing familiarity with baseball has posted some model of the next sentiment: This crop of commerce candidates stinks. It’s true.
Considerably conveniently for the needs of my argument, Ben Clemens wrapped up his annual Commerce Worth sequence this morning. He has 50 gamers on his rankings correct, plus 65 extra within the Honorable Mentions publish. I’ve seen persistent, at the very least semi-credible commerce rumors about one participant on the highest 50: Byron Buxton. Buxton is among the most gifted baseball gamers who ever lived, however his accidents and maddening inconsistency have grow to be his popularity. That is mirrored not solely in his extremely incentive-laden Twins contract, however his spot on the commerce worth checklist: no. 41.
Extra to the purpose, Buxton lately declared that he has no curiosity in any way in waiving his full no-trade clause to permit a transfer to a contender. His precise phrases: “I don’t wish to play anyplace else.” It doesn’t get extra unequivocal than that.
Even after widening the parameters to incorporate the 65 honorable mentions, commerce rumors don’t get far more dense. I counted 4 extra: Steven Kwan, Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantara, and Luis Robert Jr., who doesn’t actually matter as a result of he’s in a piece marked “Departing the Listing, Not an Honorable Point out.”
OK, then. Effectively, if 15 or 20 groups wish to reload for a playoff push, however probably the most fascinating 10% of the key league inhabitants isn’t obtainable, that can dampen everybody’s enthusiasm some.
Why is that this the case? Dozens of causes, however I wish to zero in on one proper now: The groups which are promoting on the deadline are unhealthy. The groups which are shopping for on the deadline need good gamers. Unhealthy groups don’t have good gamers. In the event that they did, they wouldn’t be unhealthy groups.
Particularly groups just like the White Sox, Rockies and Nationals, which have been unhealthy for ages. They offered off all their good gamers years in the past, and acquired worse within the course of. Effectively, not all their good gamers in Washington’s case, because the fruits of their rebuild have began to come back by way of to the majors. However I don’t assume they’re buying James Wooden at this deadline.
Different unhealthy groups have good gamers, or at the very least gifted gamers, locked as much as long-term offers that make them inconvenient to commerce. The A’s lately gave the “Josh Johnson Memorial Please Don’t File A Grievance, MLBPA” extension to each Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler, each of whom would in any other case be extremely sought-after energy bats.
In an alternate universe, Bryan Reynolds is a high rental bat. As a substitute, he signed a $100 million contract that makes him a Pirate for all times, a prospect that appears to excite him now about as a lot as 5 extra years of doing laundry.
Nowadays, it takes an unusual confluence of expertise and dashed expectations to get engaging gamers available on the market. And even then, the contract scenario must be proper. The Diamondbacks are promoting; any doubt on that rating evaporated once they shipped Josh Naylor to Seattle on Thursday evening. However the Braves, who’re simply as cooked in 2025 however lighter on gamers who’re near free company, determine to face pat.
The Orioles don’t have any such limitations. They make the Diamondbacks look downright sentimental. I point out this each time I write about them, most lately on this article from April about Cedric Mullins, however the O’s are allergic to long-term make-good contracts. They’ve just one main leaguer, Tyler O’Neill, tied right down to a assured contract past this season. 9 Orioles massive leaguers will likely be free brokers on the finish of this marketing campaign; eight others may have their final yr of workforce management in 2026, both by way of arbitration or a membership possibility.
They usually’re glued to final place within the AL East. As of this writing, the Orioles are as far behind fourth-place Tampa Bay because the Rays are behind the first-place Blue Jays. Baltimore’s probabilities of even making the Wild Card spherical stand at 0.6%.
So this can be a unhealthy workforce, certain, however with loads of expertise. Whereas the White Sox and Pirates have spent extra time on the underside than an anxious catfish, the Orioles — with this core — received 91 video games in 2024 and 101 in 2023. In truth, they’re a sport over .500 since firing supervisor Brandon Hyde in mid-Might. They’ve good gamers.
Realizing that GMs speak to everybody about everybody, I’m certain any person has phoned up Mike Elias and mentioned, “What up, bro, it certain appears such as you guys broke Adley Rutschman. How about we take him off your fingers and clear room for Samuel Basallo?” The baseball equal of calling a stranger and asking if their fridge is working; presumably Elias would say no.
However listed here are 18 commerce candidates: Félix Bautista, who’s appeared in six MLB Commerce Rumors articles over the previous month, plus the 17 massive leaguers who will likely be free brokers both this yr or subsequent. Is there a big-ticket commerce candidate in there?
Orioles Commerce Candidates
Pitchers
Age
2025 Wage
2026 Wage
WAR
IP
ERA
Okay%
Opp. AVG
Zach Eflin
31.3
$18,000,000
FREE AGENT
-0.2
67
5.78
16.4%
.293
Charlie Morton
41.7
$15,000,000
FREE AGENT
0.4
88 2/3
5.58
22.5%
.270
Tomoyuki Sugano
35.8
$13,000,000
FREE AGENT
0.1
103
4.54
14.2%
.273
Andrew Kittredge
35.4
$9,000,000
$9,000,000
0.2
27 1/3
3.62
22.5%
.221
Seranthony Domínguez
30.7
$8,000,000
FREE AGENT
0.4
39 2/3
3.63
30.7%
.204
Félix Bautista
30.1
$1,000,000
ARB 2
0.6
34 2/3
2.60
35.2%
.134
Gregory Soto
30.4
$5,350,000
FREE AGENT
0.4
35 1/3
4.08
26.8%
.216
Trevor Rogers
27.7
$2,600,000
ARB 3
1.1
41 1/3
1.74
21.9%
.163
Keegan Akin
30.3
$1,475,000
ARB 3
0.1
38
3.32
23.3%
.250
Gary Sánchez
32.6
$8,500,000
FREE AGENT
-0.2
101
.231
.297
.418
Ryan O’Hearn
32.0
$8,000,000
FREE AGENT
2.2
340
.281
.374
.452
Ramón Laureano
31.0
$4,000,000
$6,500,000
1.8
259
.279
.340
.515
Jorge Mateo
30.1
$3,550,000
$5,500,000
-0.4
65
.180
.231
.279
Jacob Stallings
35.6
$367,742
FREE AGENT
-1.4
124
.132
.195
.167
Cedric Mullins
30.8
$8,725,000
FREE AGENT
0.6
331
.214
.294
.398
Ryan Mountcastle
28.4
$6,787,000
ARB 3
-0.3
200
.246
.280
.348
Ramón Urías
31.1
$3,150,000
ARB 3
0.7
269
.247
.301
.368
Dylan Carlson
26.8
$975,000
ARB 3
-0.2
119
.232
.269
.375
Stats by way of July 23
Purple: Crew possibility
Blue: At present listed as injured
Bautista’s damage is new; he simply went on the IL with shoulder discomfort on Thursday. If he had been wholesome, he would’ve been a significant potential commerce chip. The 6-foot-8 fireballer was within the midst of among the finest reduction seasons of the last decade when he got here down with a torn UCL in 2023, and he’s underneath workforce management for not one however two seasons past this one.
Rental relievers is likely to be fungible, however relievers who strike out virtually half of their opponents and have workforce management on their clocks — these guys are helpful. On condition that this IL stint will hold Bautista out of motion by way of the primary week of August at an absolute minimal, nevertheless, all of it however definitely erases no matter likelihood he had of getting traded.
And, for my part, it prevented some workforce from making a significant mistake. Lengthy-term workforce management for relievers is certainly one of baseball’s most overrated commerce commodities, as a result of reduction pitchers — even nice ones — are unpredictable yr to yr. Even relievers who look unhittable in the course of the common season can torpedo their workforce’s postseason with one or two unhealthy outings. (Don’t imagine me? Ask Emmanuel Clase or Jeff Hoffman how their 2024 playoff campaigns went.)
Bautista’s ERA this yr is a formidable 2.60, however in comparison with his 2023 marketing campaign, his fastball velocity is down two ticks. His strikeout price has dropped from 46.4% to 35.2%, and his stroll price has soared from 11.0% to 16.2%. That’s actually the best stroll price of any certified reliever in baseball. And he’s 30 years previous, now coming off a significant damage to his elbow and a minor one to his shoulder. Bautista is an efficient reliever even with all that baggage, however I wouldn’t commerce a high prospect for a pitcher who’s clearly trending within the incorrect route.
Most of the different gamers on this chart are additionally carrying at the very least yellow flags. The highest free agent-to-be in Baltimore’s bullpen, Domínguez, has the third-highest stroll price within the league. Mullins is having about a median yr within the bat total, however he’s being floated by the monster begin that impressed me to jot down about him in April. Since that article ran, Mullins is hitting .185/.236/.329.
Mountcastle is simply now beginning a rehab project for the hamstring damage that landed him on the 60-day IL. Maybe that hamstring explains why this one-time line drive machine has a wRC+ of 74. Even groups that want a primary baseman or DH have higher choices.
Eflin, certainly one of Baltimore’s massive pickups ultimately yr’s deadline, simply spent a month on the IL with a again damage. The excellent news: He threw 84 pitches and allowed simply two runs in 5 innings in an in depth loss to Cleveland. The unhealthy information: That’s the primary time in 4 begins during which Eflin didn’t permit 1) at the very least one dwelling run and a pair of) extra earned runs than innings pitched.
The shortage of excellent pitching most likely means somebody will speak themselves into Eflin. And together with his again points, um, behind him, perhaps that can work out. Eflin’s definitely executed some good work within the postseason over the previous few years.
The identical is true with Morton, who’s having the inverse of Mullins’ season. He was having an terrible yr, then I wrote about him a number of weeks into the season, and he’s mounted. On Might 9, I revealed an article declaring the 41-year-old to be cooked. He’d allowed an ERA that might practically be counted in dozens, and misplaced seven of his first 9 begins.
Morton was stumped as to what had gone incorrect, and so was I, to be trustworthy. Seems: Nothing was incorrect. Since that article ran, he’s made 13 appearances (10 begins), overlaying 63 2/3 innings; over that point, he’s 6-1 with a 3.53 ERA. Truly, Morton’s been a bit dinger-prone this previous week, permitting 4 homers in his earlier two begins. Lop these off and you’ve got a 2.61 ERA and a pair of.80 FIP over 51 2/3 innings from Might 10 to July 10.
One other frequent editorial topic of mine is Trevor Rogers, whom the Orioles acquired a yr in the past at what turned out to be an immense price: Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers, who’s grow to be a breakout star since transferring to Miami.
However as unhealthy as Rogers was final yr, he’s at present rocking a 1.74 ERA in seven begins this yr. Now, that 1.74 ERA has extra fluke markers than I can rely. Amongst them: a .200 BABIP, a strand price 15 factors larger than final yr’s, a HR/FB ratio half final yr’s, a Okay% of simply 21.9%, and a FIP that’s practically double his ERA.
However that extremely regressible FIP continues to be solely 2.97. And Rogers has recovered two miles an hour of fastball velocity, began throwing a sweeper, and de-emphasized his sinker. He’s made actual adjustments, and consequently he (amongst different issues) is working the best groundball price of his profession by a major margin.
The Orioles gave up Stowers for a shot at fixing Rogers; since he has a rock-bottom wage ($2.6 million) and one other yr of workforce management past this one, perhaps another workforce can pay by way of the nostril to get one other handful of begins out of him down the stretch, then a full yr of manufacturing in 2026.
Or the Orioles might hold Rogers. I’d be stunned, nevertheless, in the event that they hold O’Hearn.
O’Hearn, the Orioles’ solely All-Star this season, is a reliable influence hitter. He doesn’t have best DH energy, however his .375 OBP is among the many high 20 within the league. He’s additionally lower down his strikeouts from his time in Kansas Metropolis, and his breakout yr in Baltimore. If there’s no Juan Soto or Manny Machado available on the market this yr, a man with O’Hearn’s OBP abilities, with a strikeout price of 16.4%, might remake an ailing lineup.
There are, as with each Orioles commerce candidate, drawbacks. He’s a rental. He’s a DH. He turns 32 this weekend, which doesn’t matter that a lot (like I mentioned, he’s a rental DH) however does restrict the probabilities of a workforce re-signing him to anchor the lineup for the subsequent 5 years. And he’s a platoon participant.
O’Hearn is the beau best of a platoon participant, since he hits right-handed pitching higher than left-handed pitching. And by “hits higher,” I imply he completely crushes righties, with a wRC+ of 145. In opposition to lefties, nevertheless, his wRC+ is simply 77. That takes him out of the lineup a few third of the time, and presents a tactical legal responsibility that may be hidden on the mixture however begs to be uncovered by a seventh-inning pitching change in a playoff sport.
Good, however flawed. Identical to Morton, Rogers, and Eflin. Identical to the Orioles on the whole.
