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When the Astros signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal in December, it felt like an inexpensive answer to a longstanding downside. The Astros have hardly ever gotten good manufacturing from their first basemen previously decade, and whereas Walker hasn’t fairly been All-Star caliber, lately he’s typically supplied stable offense with distinctive protection for the place. Up to now this season, he’s struggled mightily, which sadly for the Astros has come at a time when different key gamers have additionally did not hit, and the rotation has weathered quite a few accidents as effectively.
Final yr, Walker hit .251/.335/.468 (119 wRC+) with 26 homers and three.0 WAR for the Diamondbacks, whereas over the previous three seasons, he averaged 32 homers, a 120 wRC+, and three.6 WAR; his 2024 shortfalls primarily owed to his lacking a month on account of an indirect pressure. Even with time missed, that 2024 manufacturing seems to be just like the second coming of Jeff Bagwell subsequent to the .226/.291/.360 (87 wRC+) efficiency of Astros first basemen final yr, with 18 homers however -1.4 WAR, a complete that was one way or the other not fairly as dangerous as the primary basemen of the Rockies and Reds. Starter José Abreu crashed and burned and was launched in mid-June regardless of solely being about midway by his three-year, $58 million deal. Thereafter, Jon Singleton did the majority of the primary base work, sharing the job with Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini on days when one or the opposite wasn’t catching. It wasn’t nice, nevertheless it no less than stopped the bleeding in that Abreu alone produced -1.5 WAR, whereas the remainder — a gaggle that additionally included Zach Dezenzo, Mauricio Dubón, and three gamers who made a single look on the place — netted 0.1 WAR.
As Michael Baumann identified when Walker signed in December, first base has been a multiyear downside for the Astros. Throughout the 2022-24 span, solely three groups had decrease WARs at a single place — proper discipline for the White Sox, Rockies, and Pirates — than the Astros’ -2.7 WAR at first. Over the previous decade, Yuli Gurriel was the one Astros first baseman to exceed 2.0 WAR in a single season (he did it twice), and 5 instances previously six seasons, the workforce’s common or co-regular first baseman completed with destructive WAR.
Sadly by the season’s first eight weeks, the 34-year-old Walker has match proper into this sample, hitting .199/.268/.333. After all, he’s not the one place participant from our High 50 Free Brokers record who modified groups this previous winter and has struggled:
High 50 Free Agent Place Gamers Who Modified Groups
All statistics by Could 22.
* = suspended 80 video games for constructive PED take a look at on March 31.
That’s seven out of 14 who’re beneath alternative degree practically one-third of the way in which by the season, and 9 beneath league common when it comes to offense. Walker’s manufacturing — and contract — seems to be even worse when in comparison with that of the person he initially changed in Arizona. Goldschmidt, who’s 3 1/2 years older, hit for only a 100 wRC+ final season, and settled for a one-year, $12.5 million cope with the Yankees, which proper now seems to be like a implausible cut price.
Walker’s season has already included some ups and downs, in that he had a three-week interval the place he appeared to emerge from his droop. These are arbitrary endpoints, chosen for instance the distinction between these unequal segments of his season:
Christian Walker’s Ups and Downs
Span
G
PA
HR
BB
Okay%
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
By April 20
21
87
2
9.2%
31.0%
.156
.253
.260
51
April 22–Could 11
17
72
2
5.6%
22.2%
.308
.361
.508
147
Since Could 12
11
46
1
4.3%
30.4%
.114
.152
.205
-4
Shortly after that scorching streak ended — actually, earlier than anybody discovered that it had ended, simply that he’d had back-to again hitless video games for the primary time in 4 weeks — Walker sounded as if he believed the worst of his dangerous begin was over. “I needed to remind myself (that) my swing isn’t damaged,” he advised MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart on Could 13. “I’m feeling good, feeling far more aggressive. Feeling like I’m serving to the workforce extra, which I like. General, I really feel prefer it’s trending in the suitable path, for certain.”
Extra from McTaggart:
When he was struggling at his lowest factors, Walker felt he was getting too “pushy” together with his palms, which suggests he was pushing his palms off his physique as an alternative of pushing down within the zone earlier than working the bat up by the zone. He mentioned nothing was clicking or making sense.
“And it was only a matter of which drill, which really feel, which thought within the field is all going to make that come out,” Walker mentioned. “You may get the cage work feeling good, however attempting to take one thing relevant into the sport, into the field, that retains you within the second, retains you reactive, but in addition offers you a house. No matter is clicking proper now, the sensation, I’m certain it can change a bit bit, however I’m positively feeling higher, for certain.”
Not like, say, Trevor Story, whose present offensive stats are notably out of whack relative to his monitor file nearly in every single place one may look, Walker’s general 2025 numbers typically don’t provide evident contrasts to what got here earlier than. That mentioned, a lot of the comparatively delicate variations present setbacks somewhat than enhancements. His 50.2% swing price is up about two factors over final yr. His 27.9% chase price is up practically 4 factors from final yr and is his highest mark since 2020. His 74.9% contact price and 12.5% swinging strike price are his worst marks since 2021, the yr he hit for simply an 88 wRC+ in 115 video games. His swing choices, as measured by Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, have gotten worse. The place he ranked within the ninety fifth to 99th percentile in SEAGER yearly from 2022–24 — which is to say, he was exceptionally good at figuring out and swinging on the pitches with which he may do actual injury — he’s down within the sixtieth percentile now. In consequence, Walker’s 6.8% stroll price and 27.8% strikeout price are his worst marks since he turned a daily in 2019; his stroll price has dropped 3.2 share factors from 2024, whereas his strikeout price has gained 3.7 factors relative to final yr and (gulp) 8.6 factors relative to 2023.
A have a look at Walker’s bat monitoring metrics present that he’s misplaced a little bit of bat pace, dipping from a mean of 75 mph (with a 52.8% quick swing price) final yr to 74.1 (with a 40.6% quick swing price) this yr. These are averages, and a examine of his month-to-month splits reveals that he dropped to 73.7 mph in March and April earlier than rebounding to 74.6 this month. Not that it has correlated with improved manufacturing, no less than primarily based on his month-to-month splits: .196/.277/.355 (82 wRC+) by April, and .203/.256/.304 (58 wRC+) to this point in Could.
Trying out the model new swing path metrics that Statcast rolled out earlier this week — name this a take a look at drive, because it’s the primary time I’ve performed with these — the numbers present that the common tilt of Walker’s swing has flattened by one diploma general relative to final yr, from 30 levels to 29. That isn’t damning in and of itself, and should have extra to do with the place he’s being pitched than some mechanical difficulty. In the meantime, he’s truly improved his supreme angle of assault price — the frequency with which his bat is angled between 5 and 20 levels on the level of contact — from 46.9% final yr to 55.2% this yr. Once more, that doesn’t line up together with his degree of manufacturing, although inside this season’s numbers, he had a barely increased price in his less-terrible March/April (56.7%) than his woeful Could (53.3%).
Notice that I additionally tried lining up these new metrics with the arbitrary endpoints above that confirmed shifts in his manufacturing. Essentially the most revealing break up I discovered was that in this dire latest stretch that started on Could 12, he’s averaged 75.6 mph together with his swings, in comparison with 73.1 mph throughout his good stretch, suggesting he might have to dial it again only a bit.
Again in additional acquainted analytical territory, I see two evident variations which are reducing into Walker’s manufacturing. First off, he’s taken simply 27 plate appearances towards lefties and has hit .087/.185/.130 — that’s two hits, a single and a double, plus three walks. His 13.1% share of PA towards lefties truly stands out greater than that grim slash line, as a result of it isn’t as if he’s platooning; he’s began 49 of the Astros’ 50 video games at first, and gone the space in 44. The Astros have taken a significant league-low 258 PA (13.9%) towards lefties; the next-lowest workforce, the Angels, has 290 (16.1%), and the third-lowest workforce, the A’s, has 370 (19.6%). Like most righties, Walker hits higher towards lefties; from 2022–24, he batted .264/.350/.492 (128 wRC+) in 480 PA (25.5% of his whole), in comparison with .245/.325/.478 (118 wRC+) towards righties. He’s lacking out on an vital portion of his offensive food regimen.
The opposite factor that actually stands out in Walker’s 2025 stats relative to latest years is that he’s instantly struggling mightily towards four-seam fastballs:
Christian Walker vs. 4-Seam Fastballs
Season
PA
HR
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
EV
Whiff%
2022
185
14
.263
.262
.581
.570
.395
.395
92.2
18.2%
2023
168
10
.282
.233
.592
.466
.405
.346
90.4
26.0%
2024
154
10
.246
.253
.538
.508
.377
.381
93.4
29.1%
2025
56
2
.140
.188
.300
.352
.241
.278
90.7
25.6%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Walker’s manufacturing towards the warmers was fairly constant from 2022-24, together with his drop-off from ’23 to ’24 extra a correction relative to his anticipated stats than a real decline; his xwOBA towards them in 2024 truly improved by 35 factors at the same time as his wOBA fell by 28 factors. When it comes to Statcast run worth, he’s dropped from 9 runs above common final yr (and 35 above from 2022–24) to 4 beneath common this yr. His efficiency towards changeups has declined notably as effectively, from a .328 AVG/.656 SLG in 2024 to .158 AVG/.263 SLG in ’25, with a Statcast run worth drop from six above common to 2 beneath.
As regards to anticipated versus precise numbers, Walker’s high quality of contact has fallen off only a bit, nevertheless it’s nonetheless fairly good. What’s actually modified is the hole between his precise and anticipated numbers; try the drops in his percentile rankings:
Christian Walker Statcast Profile
Season
Kind
BBE
EV
Brl%
HH%
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
2024
Stats
354
91.3
13.3%
48.0%
.251
.246
.468
.457
.343
.351
2025
Stats
130
90.8
12.3%
46.9%
.199
.236
.333
.407
.269
.310
2024
Percentiles
82
90
86
47
80
86
2025
Percentiles
65
73
76
23
38
29
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Walker outdid his xSLG final yr by 11 factors, however this yr, he’s 74 factors quick. Likewise, he was eight factors wanting his xwOBA final yr, however is 41 factors quick this yr; he’s within the nineteenth percentile when it comes to each of these gaps, which have elevated throughout this newest droop. Since Could 12, he’s averaged a 93.3 mph exit velo with a 20% barrel price, 53.3% hard-hit price, and a .309 xwOBA (that latest 30.4% strikeout price is actually reducing into his manufacturing), however has only a .161 wOBA over that span.
It bears noting that whereas Walker is pulling the ball extra typically, each within the air (22.3% vs. 19.2%) and general (44.6% vs. 41%), he’s taking part in in a much less favorable park for righties besides with regards to residence runs (thanks, Crawford Bins), no less than in response to our 2024 park components by handedness, that are primarily based on 5 years of information:
Park Issue Comparability
Season
Workforce
1B as R
2B as R
3B as R
HR as R
2024
Diamondbacks
104
105
117
91
2024
Astros
98
98
92
101
Fewer lefties, a drop in bat pace, hassle with four-seamers, a much less favorable ballpark, maybe some dangerous luck — all of those components are reducing into Walker’s manufacturing, they usually’re including up at an inopportune time for the Astros. Yordan Alvarez has hit simply .210/.306/.340 (78 wRC+) and has been out since Could 2 on account of a muscle pressure in his proper hand. Jose Altuve, who homered twice within the Astros’ 9-2 win over the Mariners on Thursday, is hitting .243/.296/.370 (89 wRC+) and hasn’t clicked in his new place, left discipline (-6 DRS, -2 FRV), and the workforce’s second basemen — primarily Brendan Rodgers (26 video games) but in addition Dubón (15 video games) and Altuve himself (10 video games) have mixed to hit .216/.280/.284 (63 wRC+) in that function. In the meantime, inside the previous week, Hayden Wesneski realized that he wants Tommy John surgical procedure whereas Ronel Blanco has been sidelined by a bout of elbow irritation, working the workforce’s whole of injured starters to 6.
That the Astros are one way or the other 26-24 with a 56.6% probability of constructing the playoffs regardless of that litany is definitely considerably spectacular. Nonetheless, it is a workforce that’s relying on its two oldest place gamers (the 35-year-old Altuve and Walker) and a famous person with a hand damage to show issues round whereas having two inexperienced rookies within the rotation (Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto) in addition to Lance McCullers Jr., who just lately returned from a 2 1/2-year absence on account of accidents. For all of their latest success, nothing is assured for these Astros — or for Walker.
