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Diplomatic breakthrough or navy motion?: Trump’s alternative on Iran: ANALYSIS


As President Donald Trump huddled together with his high advisers within the White Home Scenario Room on Tuesday, U.S. officers signaled that the following 24 to 48 hours could be essential in figuring out whether or not a diplomatic resolution with Iran is feasible — or if the president would possibly resort to navy motion as a substitute.

Trump considerably ramped up his rhetoric in opposition to the Iranian regime forward of the assembly, asserting that the U.S. knew precisely the place Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hiding.

“He’s a simple goal, however is protected there — We’re not going to take him out (kill!), at the very least not for now. However we do not need missiles shot at civilians, or American troopers. Our endurance is sporting skinny,” Trump wrote on social media.

“We now have full and whole management of the skies over Iran,” he claimed in one other submit.

President Donald Trump departs after a household photograph in the course of the Group of Seven Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, June 16, 2025.

Suzanne Plunkett/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

A final likelihood for diplomacy?

Regardless of the obvious saber rattling, U.S. negotiators on Tuesday continued to evaluate that Iran is in a weak place and might be compelled to return again to the negotiating desk and to finally settle for a deal that might require it abandon all nuclear enrichment, based on a number of officers concerned within the diplomatic course of.

As Iran and Israel commerce blows, the Iranian regime has signaled a willingness to renew discussions with the U.S., the officers mentioned, including that the Trump administration has been on the lookout for extra concrete commitments earlier than backing off the struggle path.

If Iran returns to the negotiations and agrees to drop its uranium enrichment, U.S. officers consider a high-level assembly led by Particular Envoy Steve Witkoff and probably Vice President JD Vance would occur as quickly as this week.

However that state of affairs probably requires Iran to maneuver shortly. The president has already acknowledged his endurance with the state of affairs within the Center East is sporting skinny.

Sources acquainted with the president’s mindset mentioned he has grown annoyed by a destabilized Iran’s incapability to supply the administration with fast solutions and likewise seems extremely disinclined to permit for a state of affairs to unfold the place it seems as if Tehran has efficiently known as his navy bluff.

Airmen take a look at a GBU-57, or the Large Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, Could 2, 2023.

U.S. Air Power by way of AP, FILE

A ‘defensive’ US posture — for now

The U.S. navy is already sending belongings towards the area, together with sending further plane and a second plane provider and its strike group to the Center East — all strikes which are defensive in nature, officers say.

“We’re sturdy, we’re ready, we’re defensive and current,” Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth mentioned of the U.S. posture within the Center East throughout an interview with Fox Information on Monday.

However whereas the repositioning of belongings is meant to guard the 40,000 estimated American troops stationed within the area, it additionally leaves choices open for the Trump administration if it decides to straight help with Israel’s ongoing offensive operation in opposition to Iran.

“It is our function to maintain choices on the desk, however our posture continues to be defensive,” mentioned a U.S. official.

A B-2 Spirit returns to Whiteman Air Power Base, Missouri, from a deployment to Diego Garcia, British Indian Ocean Territory, Could 9, 2025.

Senior Airman Devan Halstead/509th Bomb Wing/US Air Power

A significant query is whether or not the U.S. will deploy its B-2 stealth bombers. The heavy strategic bombers are able to carrying the 30,000 pound Large Ordnance Penetrator bunker-buster bombs, which could be capable to destroy Iran’s deep underground nuclear facility on the Fordo Gasoline Enrichment Plant.

At the moment, the navy’s fleet of 19 B-2 bombers is situated at Whiteman Air Power Base in Missouri. Six of the plane had been beforehand deployed to the airbase on the island of Diego Garcia within the Indian Ocean — a lot nearer to Iran. Nevertheless, they had been changed by B-52 long-range bombers which aren’t able to carrying the bunker-buster bombs wanted to destroy the Fordo web site.

Already, roughly a dozen U.S. Navy vessels are in Bahrain’s territorial waters away from submit, based on a Protection Division official, who mentioned that the ships should not have any official tasking. Amongst them are a littoral fight ship, 4 minesweepers, and 6 water patrol craft, the official mentioned.

The Navy additionally has two destroyers within the Pink Sea, an plane provider, and three different floor ships within the Arabian Sea. Two extra American destroyers are within the japanese Mediterranean Sea — every outfitted with missile protection programs able to capturing down Iranian ballistic missiles.

A shifting US agenda

Indicators the Trump administration might be inching towards navy motion may embrace canceling the president’s plans to journey to the Netherlands for a NATO summit subsequent week.

At a press briefing on Tuesday, State Division spokesperson Tammy Bruce mentioned the summit was nonetheless “on the books” — however mentioned the state of affairs may change relying on the dynamic with Iran.

“That is one thing that’s shifting — as issues are likely to — very quickly. So, I might say that something is feasible,” she mentioned.

Already, the president made an early exit from the G7 summit in Canada, opting to chop his time there brief on Monday with a view to monitor the state of affairs within the Center East from the White Home.



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