Denis Poroy-Imagn Photos
On Saturday in San Diego, Fernando tate Jr. homered in opposition to the Royals, a towering shot that gave the slugger a second to admire his work and stylishly set down his bat earlier than trotting across the bases. Past that flourish, it was a well timed hit, because the three-run, seventh-inning blast expanded a 2-1 lead and helped the Padres to a much-needed victory. Of explicit curiosity to those eyes — and little doubt to these of Padres followers — was the truth that the homer was Tatis’ first since Might 27, ending the longest drought of his profession.
The 26-year-old slugger linked in opposition to a 96-mph sinker from the Royals’ Taylor Clarke. It got here off the bat at 107.9 mph, however its estimated distance was a modest 380 toes:
“It was heavy” tate mentioned of his 21-game homerless streak. “Everyone knew it, I knew it, how lengthy it was. I’ve simply been grinding.”
Tatis’ effort to renew hitting dingers wasn’t helped by his being hit by a pitch 3 times inside a 10-day span in opposition to the Dodgers, a part of ongoing hostilities between the 2 NL West rivals. Within the final of these, Dodgers reliever Jack Little — who was making his main league debut — hit Tatis on the proper wrist within the ninth inning of their June 19 recreation. Each benches and bullpens cleared, and managers Mike Shildt and Dave Roberts needed to be separated:
Each managers earned one-game suspensions and fines, whereas Padres reliever Robert Suarezwho hit Shohei Ohtani within the backside of the ninth — the second time within the sequence each superstars had been plunked inside the similar body — was handed a three-game suspension. Tatis needed to depart the sport and endure X-rays and follow-up scans that, fortunately, revealed he didn’t break any bones (the Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll wasn’t so fortunate with respect to his current HBP).
“For me it wasn’t (intentional), within the second,” mentioned Tatis afterwards. “However what number of occasions have they hit me already?” He later mentioned he spent a “lengthy morning on the hospital” however that he “undoubtedly dodged a bullet.”
“It received the bones on my wrist. That’s a fragile space,” he continued. “I used to be simply completely happy I didn’t break any bones and completely happy I’m in a position to keep on the sector.”
Again to the house runs, in his six-season profession, Tatis had by no means gone greater than 18 video games with out hitting one till this season, although he did have one other comparatively lengthy streak in late April and early Might:
Fernando tate Jr. Homerless Streaks
Streak
Streak Began
Streak Ended
21
5/28/25
6/20/25
17
9/16/23
3/28/24
14
9/7/20
9/25/20*
14
4/21/25
5/9/25
13
8/4/23
8/17/23
12
7/15/23*
7/26/23
12
8/19/23*
8/31/23
12
4/20/24
5/1/24
11
6/12/19
6/23/19
11
5/13/24
5/24/24
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
* = First recreation of doubleheader
A 21-game homerless streak isn’t a lot in the grand scheme of issues. Nico Hoerner has but to homer in 74 video games performed this 12 months, and it’s not onerous to search out former All-Stars with 30-homer seasons on their résumés and streaks longer than that of Tatis this 12 months, together with Michael Consolation (41 video games), Freddie Freeman (36 and counting), Pederson recreation (33), Salvador Perez (31), Gleyber Torres (28), and Paul Goldschmidt (27). Fathers Teammate Xander Bogaerts has separate homerless streaks of 30 and 28 video games himself, the longer of which led to the identical recreation from which Tatis departed.
Together with one other three-run shot hit with two outs within the ninth inning of Monday evening’s 10-6 loss to the Nationals, Tatis has hit a team-high 15 homers, however his whole is kind of front-loaded and clustered. He clubbed eight in his first 21 video games, went homerless for the subsequent 14, rebounded with 4 homers in eight video games, hit one over a 29-game span that included the lengthy drought, and has now gone yard twice within the final three video games. By means of all of that, his manufacturing is kind of consistent with final 12 months’s, albeit with improved strikeout and stroll charges, a decrease BABIP and ISO, and higher defensive metrics such that he’s already surpassed final 12 months’s WAR:
Fernando Sama Jr., 2024 vs. 2025 Comparability
Season
PA
HR
BB%
Okay%
ISO
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
FRV
WAR
2024
438
21
7.3%
21.9%
.216
.316
.276
.340
.492
135
2
3.2
2025
334
15
11.1%
17.7%
.199
.288
.267
.356
.466
132
9
3.4
Tatis has been hitting the ball onerous, however hasn’t been getting the optimistic outcomes one would anticipate from his high quality of contact. Right here’s a take a look at his month-to-month breakdown in some conventional and Statcast classes:
Fernando Tatis Jr. Statcast Splits by Month
Break up
PA
BBE
HR
EV
LA
Brl%
HH%
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
Mar/Apr
126
95
8
94.1
3
17.9%
54.7%
.345
.334
.602
.680
.431
.457
Might
112
78
5
93.7
11
6.4%
51.3%
.184
.232
.369
.390
.273
.300
Jun
93
61
2
93.3
13
11.5%
50.8%
.263
.302
.395
.547
.360
.421
Tatis was red-hot in March and April, however even then, he was 78 factors in need of his anticipated slugging share, and that was with a mean launch angle of simply three levels; he had a 54.7% groundball price that month (extra on that subject momentarily). He was frosty in Might, however has made higher contact in June; even so, the hole between his precise and anticipated slugging share has virtually doubled. Such gaps aren’t unusual, notably for many who toil in offense-suppressing Petco Park; this 12 months, the league as an entire is slugging .369 there, in comparison with an xSLG of .408. Tatis hit .237/.383/.289 within the 21 video games bracketed by his previous two homers, however produced a .275 xBA and .420 xSLG over that stretch.
For as onerous as Tatis is hitting the ball — his 93.8-mph common exit velo is within the 96th percentile, and his 52.6% hard-hit price within the 92nd percentile — his 12.4% barrel price is simply within the 74th percentile, down from the 92nd percentile final 12 months (14.5%). That goes hand in hand along with his spike to a career-high 50.4% groundball price, up over 4 share factors from final 12 months:
Fernando tate Jr. Batted Ball Profile
Season
Break up
GB%
AIR%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Pull%
Straight
Oppo%
Pull Air %
2023
Full
47.7%
52.3%
25.1%
21.2%
5.9%
39.5%
42.7%
17.8%
15.1%
2024
Full
46.2%
53.8%
26.1%
24.1%
3.6%
38.9%
35.6%
25.4%
14.5%
2025
Full
50.4%
49.6%
24.8%
22.2%
5.1%
34.2%
42.7%
23.1%
10.7%
2025
Mar/Apr
54.7%
45.3%
22.1%
21.1%
2.1%
41.1%
35.8%
23.2%
12.6%
2025
Might
53.8%
46.2%
24.4%
15.4%
6.4%
34.6%
42.3%
23.1%
10.3%
2025
June
39.3%
60.7%
29.5%
23.0%
8.2%
23.0%
54.1%
23.0%
8.2%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
There’s rather a lot happening in that desk. Word first that on a seasonal foundation, Tatis is hitting extra grounders than in recent times, and pulling the ball much less usually, notably within the air. Not too long ago, he’s lower down his groundball price, however has offset that partly by hitting extra popups, and is pulling the ball with even much less frequency. The issue with that’s that balls within the air are much less more likely to get out in the event that they’re hit straightaway — to the deepest a part of the ballpark — than in the event that they’re hit in direction of a nook.
Tatis is infamous for tinkering along with his setup and his stance. Right here’s a nonetheless from a multi-screen Instagram submit from MLB Community on April 14:
MLB Community
If you happen to comply with the hyperlink to that submit, you’ll see clips of MLBN analyst Mark Derosa stating how Tatis has more and more opened his stance over the course of his profession, how he’s wrapping the bat extra relative to final season, and the way he’s gotten rid of a leg kick… however this clip aired two months and two homerless droughts in the past. “If he goes south, don’t be shocked if you happen to see the leg kick floor in July when he’s not feeling nice,” mentioned DeRosa, whose timing was off by a few months. Tatis seems to have introduced a chill after that first homerless spell; right here’s a supercut of his earlier 5 homers from Might 10–27:
The kick is there, albeit much less so for the final of these homers, nevertheless it was absent for Monday evening’s 435-footer off Washington’s Zach Brzykcy:
A comparability of Tatis’ batting stance knowledge for the three seasons we’ve obtainable reveals him progressing from a stance that was open by 14 levels (late 2023) to open by 29 levels (2024) to open by 45 levels, however inside these seasons, there’s some variation. In July 2023, his stance was open by 16 levels, however by September/October that was all the way down to 11 levels. Final 12 months, he ranged from being open by 27 levels in Might to 31 levels each in June earlier than being sidelined by a stress response in his proper femur and in September after returning. This 12 months, Tatis has gone from a stance that was open by 52 levels in March/April to 45 levels in Might to 35 levels in June, with the space between his toes growing from 20.9 inches to 22.6 to 24.9:
Relative to final 12 months, Tatis’ common bat velocity is down (from 74.7 mph to 73.6), and his assault angle has flattened out (from 10 levels to seven), however on a month-to-month foundation, his velocity and angle have elevated, whereas his tilt has decreased and his assault route has shifted:
That’s greater than I can account for at this early stage of understanding swing monitoring, however in studying a current article during which Baseball Prospectus’ Matthew Trueblood aggregated assault angles and assault instructions into 36 totally different buckets, I seen that Tatis’ common mixture (assault angle 5-10 levels, slight oppo route) lands him within the bucket with one of many lowest wOBAs (.250):
A more in-depth take a look at the information reveals that when Tatis — whose assault angle on all of his swings this 12 months has ranged from 30 levels to -74, a great reminder that these are averages we’re discussing — has swung at balls inside that 5–10 diploma assault angle vary, his manufacturing this 12 months is approach down relative to the previous two:
Fernando Tatis Jr. with 5-10 Diploma Assault Angle
Season
PA
BBE
EV
Brl%
HH%
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
2023
63
51
91.9
11.8%
54.9%
.339
.315
.468
.531
.341
.354
2024
72
62
93.2
19.4%
54.8%
.333
.335
.556
.638
.379
.414
2025
68
64
93.9
10.9%
51.6%
.191
.323
.309
.581
.215
.384
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Inside that slender vary of angles, Tatis has hit grounders on 45.3% of his balls in play, in keeping with 2023 however approach up from 33.8% final 12 months, and with worse outcomes (.092 wOBA vs. .210 wOBA) regardless of a a lot larger common exit velocity (93 mph vs. 88.7).
I’m reluctant to get an excessive amount of extra granular at this stage, however given what we’ve noticed along with his stance, his kick, and the angles in play, I feel it’s truthful to say that Tatis continues to be looking for a extra optimum swing, partly as a result of his outcomes aren’t jibing with the standard of his contact. What he’s received continues to be working higher than most gamers — he’s seventeenth within the league in wRC+, and fifth in WAR — however like several star, he’s pushed to enhance, and that’s a part of what makes him nice.
