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Cal Raleigh is scorching. Thumping three homers in a span of two days has put Massive Dumper at 56 on the season with 11 video games left to play. That binge offers him a sensible shot at hitting a pleasant spherical 60 on the season, a threshold that solely an elite few sluggers have ever reached. He’s doing it as a catcher, which is absurd. He left the outdated single-season dwelling run report for catchers within the mud a very long time in the past.
As I discovered all the best way again in first grade, 62 is simply two greater than 60. Given Raleigh’s predilection for blasting bombs in bunches – he hit six in six video games earlier this yr, and 9 in a separate 11-game stretch – Aaron Choose’s single-season AL dwelling run report (and for some folks, although not me, the “true” dwelling run report) is certainly in play.
As is custom at FanGraphs, when somebody goes for a house run milestone, we forecast when it’d occur. Whether or not it’s Choose’s quest for 62, Albert Pujols’ push for 700, or Shohei Ohtani’s bid for 50/50, it’s enjoyable and helpful to foretell when the precise milestone recreation will happen. I’ll begin with the methodology, however should you’re not into that, there are some tables down beneath that offers you an concept of when and the place Raleigh would possibly hit both his sixtieth, 62nd, or 63rd homer.
I began with our Depth Charts projection for Raleigh’s dwelling run charge the remainder of the best way. That’s based mostly on impartial opposition, so I additionally accounted for park components and opposition. Since Raleigh is a switch-hitter, I used the precise pitchers the Mariners are anticipated to face to find out whether or not he begins every recreation batting lefty or righty, and in addition used these pitchers’ dwelling run charge projections to find out opponent power. I used a mix of projected starter, dwelling run charge, and noticed bullpen dwelling run charge to provide you with a power of opposition estimate. That allow me create a singular dwelling run atmosphere for every recreation. I additionally informed the pc to randomly choose what number of plate appearances Raleigh receives every recreation, with a median of 5 more than likely however some likelihood of 4 or six.
The Mariners would possibly give Raleigh a time off, however it’s removed from sure. He hasn’t had an off day within the final month, for instance. I modeled a 5% likelihood of a relaxation day on every recreation of the 2 collection that encompass their often scheduled time off, however capped it at a single relaxation day; after he rests as soon as, this system assumes he’ll play each single day the remainder of the best way. I additionally included an element that makes Raleigh’s dwelling run charge fluctuate round his projections, which implies that in some simulations he hits dwelling runs in 9% of his plate appearances, whereas in others he hits them 5% of the time. I simulated the rest of the season 1,000,000 occasions to get the probability of his sixtieth homer occurring in a given recreation:
Cal Raleigh, sixtieth Homer Odds
Day
Opponent
Dwelling/Away
Odds of sixtieth Homer
Cumulative Odds
9/17
Royals
Away
0.00%
0.00%
9/18
Royals
Away
0.06%
0.07%
9/19
Astros
Away
0.38%
0.45%
9/20
Astros
Away
0.73%
1.17%
9/21
Astros
Away
3.09%
4.26%
9/23
Rockies
Dwelling
5.73%
9.99%
9/24
Rockies
Dwelling
7.02%
17.00%
9/25
Rockies
Dwelling
8.32%
25.33%
9/26
Dodgers
Dwelling
6.20%
31.53%
9/27
Dodgers
Dwelling
6.86%
38.39%
9/28
Dodgers
Dwelling
6.77%
45.16%
That top-line quantity isn’t notably stunning; we’re projecting him for 59 dwelling runs proper now, so I’d be shocked if his odds of reaching 60 had been above 50%, however it’s positively shut both manner. The house collection in opposition to the Rockies, and the final recreation in opposition to the Astros (he faces Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez within the first two of that set), are his greatest alternatives for homers. T-Cell Park suppresses offense, however it’s not notably powerful for lefty dwelling runs, and the Rockies are scheduled to start out three replacement-level righties in that collection. The final collection of the yr in opposition to the Dodgers is one other fruitful time to see no. 60; it’s not that these video games are notably simple, however the Los Angeles bullpen is a catastrophe proper now and that is an accumulation recreation; in loads of these simulations, Raleigh does most of his harm in opposition to the Rockies after which hits the capping sixtieth homer within the final collection.
Including the person video games up, the Rockies collection is one of the best one to attend should you can solely go to 1 and need to see the sixtieth dwelling run. The Dodgers collection is a detailed second, although, and it’s higher for the following statistic I’m going to point out you, the percentages of Raleigh hitting his 62nd homer in a given recreation:
Cal Raleigh, 62nd Homer Odds
Day
Opponent
Dwelling/Away
Odds of 62nd Homer
Cumulative Odds
9/17
Royals
Away
0.00%
0.00%
9/18
Royals
Away
0.00%
0.00%
9/19
Astros
Away
0.00%
0.00%
9/20
Astros
Away
0.02%
0.02%
9/21
Astros
Away
0.17%
0.19%
9/23
Rockies
Dwelling
0.64%
0.83%
9/24
Rockies
Dwelling
1.32%
2.15%
9/25
Rockies
Dwelling
2.30%
4.44%
9/26
Dodgers
Dwelling
2.28%
6.73%
9/27
Dodgers
Dwelling
3.10%
9.82%
9/28
Dodgers
Dwelling
3.71%
13.54%
Hey, 13.5% isn’t half unhealthy. In the event you’re making an attempt to see this specific milestone, although, you’ll have to go to Seattle, and possibly for the final collection of the season. Even then, six homers in 11 video games is a steep sufficient hill to climb that when he does it within the simulation, it’s most ceaselessly within the final recreation. These odds are notably risky proper now, although; if Raleigh hits one other dwelling run or two earlier than the weekend, the trail to 62 opens up way more. If he doesn’t, it’s virtually unattainable. If I inform the mannequin that Raleigh will hit two homers within the subsequent 4 video games, it offers him a 25% likelihood of reaching 62. If I as a substitute give him none in these 4 video games, the percentages fall to 4%. In different phrases, he gained’t attain the milestone within the subsequent few days, however they nonetheless matter tremendously.
Lastly, for the sake of completeness, what concerning the odds of Raleigh attending to 63 and setting the brand new AL report? It’s going to be powerful:
Cal Raleigh, 63rd Homer Odds
Day
Opponent
Dwelling/Away
Odds of 63rd Homer
Cumulative Odds
9/17
Royals
Away
0.00%
0.00%
9/18
Royals
Away
0.00%
0.00%
9/19
Astros
Away
0.00%
0.00%
9/20
Astros
Away
0.00%
0.00%
9/21
Astros
Away
0.03%
0.03%
9/23
Rockies
Dwelling
0.15%
0.18%
9/24
Rockies
Dwelling
0.42%
0.61%
9/25
Rockies
Dwelling
0.89%
1.50%
9/26
Dodgers
Dwelling
1.04%
2.54%
9/27
Dodgers
Dwelling
1.53%
4.07%
9/28
Dodgers
Dwelling
2.05%
6.12%
The TLDR of all of this: If you wish to see Massive Dumper hit a historic dwelling run, you’ll must be in Seattle. Relying on whether or not you’re into spherical numbers or Marcusyou would possibly favor the Rockies collection or Dodgers collection. If I might solely go to 1 recreation, although, I’d decide September 26 in opposition to the Dodgers. It has a pleasant unfold of likelihoods for every milestone. There’s additionally some likelihood that the Mariners might clinch the AL West that day, and Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to pitch for the Dodgers. That’s lots of cool issues all lined up directly — and possibly, simply possibly, a type of cool issues will probably be a house run that you simply’ll be capable of inform your mates you noticed in individual for the remainder of your life.
