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Junior Caminero has, as of this writing, grounded into 22 double performs in 333 plate appearances this 12 months. The primary 12 months each the AL and NL counted double performs was 1939; since then, there have been some 9,295 particular person participant seasons of 300 or extra plate appearances. Caminero’s present marketing campaign is already within the prime 300 in double performs.
Two months in the past, Leo Morgenstern wrote an article titled “Carlos Correa Is Preserving the GIDP Alive,” which conceded, proper within the lede, that although Correa had grounded into an appalling six double performs in April alone, Caminero was main the league. The Rays third baseman has solely expanded that hole; Jacob Wilson is second with 15 double performs.
Grounding right into a double play is the second-worst factor a hitter can do on the plate. However, considerably perversely, nice gamers floor into a number of them. The all-time profession leaderboard in double performs is an inventory of the best hitters who ever lived. Within the prime 27 hitters in profession double performs, you’ll discover 18 Corridor of Famers, a quantity that can solely develop when Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Yadier Molinaand (if folks chill slightly about PEDs) Robinson Canó hit the poll within the subsequent few years.
Properly, in fact, the profession leaders in double performs are all within the Corridor of Fame; it’s a must to be a fantastic hitter simply to final the 20-odd years it’d take to rack up huge numbers in any counting stat. OK, nicely, of the 12 gamers who’ve grounded into 30 or extra double performs in a season (Jim Ricethe single-season document holder, did it 3 times), you’ll discover six Corridor of Famers (Rice, Cal Ripken Jr., Bobby Doerr, Ivan Rodriguez, Carl Yastrzemskiand Dave Winfield), plus an MVP (Jackie Jensen), a man who’s in all probability going to finish up within the Corridor of Very Good (Correa), and three different All-Stars (Ben Grieve, Billy Butlerand Tony Armas).
By the way, 5 of those 12 gamers had their huge double play season for the Crimson Sox. That features Armas and Rice, who every grounded into 31 twin killings whereas sharing an outfield in 1983. That crew grounded into 171 double performs, tied for the third-highest complete ever. Of the 14 place gamers who recorded not less than 50 plate appearances on that crew, seven grounded into 12 or extra double performs. I can not think about what that should’ve been like to look at.
However once more, double performs, similar to strikeouts, are a part of the cut price for a sure sort of hitter. Going again to 1983, Rice grounded into 31 double performs, however he additionally hit .305 and led the league in house runs and complete bases. That looks like a reasonably good trade-off.
So, too, for Caminero, who has best-in-baseball bat pace and above-average contact abilities, but in addition has a profession 1.32 GB/FB ratio. That’s not an outlier or something, nevertheless it’s excessive. The Rays will take it as a result of he’s main the crew in house runs and slugging proportion, and is second amongst Tampa Bay’s place gamers in WAR, by a tenth of a win. However Caminero has a staggering double play propensity.
The Rays know a factor or two about this type of hitter, having had Yandy Díaz within the lineup for seven seasons now. Díaz will hit right into a double play — he’s at present at 9, which is tied for fifteenth within the league — however to not this extent.
No one hits into double performs to this extent. Properly, I assume that’s not actually true. Billy Hitchcock did, however solely as soon as.
Fewest PA per GDP in a Season
Min. 300 extra, since 1939
you’re in deep when Sherm Lollar reveals up.
This can be a prodigious double play charge. Caminero’s double performs per crew sport charge has him on tempo for 42 double performs. On a per-plate look foundation, if he will get as many PA as Rice did when he set the document (708), Caminero will floor into 47 double performs this 12 months. Keep in mind, the single-season document is 36. If Caminero grounds into double performs at this charge for the remainder of his profession, he’ll break Pujols’ all-time document in his age-30 season.
What I wish to know is why he’s doing this. On one hand, laborious contact means the ball will get to the infielders faster and offers them extra time to show two. Add a sluggish, right-handed hitter into the equation, and there you go.
However whereas Caminero is a groundball hitter, he’s not even near probably the most excessive groundball hitter within the league. The identical for his foot pace; he’s sluggish, however he’s a 3rd of a second faster to first base than the slowest guys within the league.
Perhaps it’s a mixture of the 2. There are 416 gamers who seem on Baseball Savant’s dash pace leaderboard and now have not less than 30 PA this season. The imply home-to-first time amongst these gamers is 4.47 seconds; one normal deviation under the imply is 4.66 seconds. Let’s do the identical with groundball charge; the imply is 42.9%, and one normal deviation greater than the imply is 50.55%. So what number of gamers are on one finish of the bell curve in each pace and groundball charge?
These Guys Ought to Be Double Play Magnets
SOURCE: FanGraphs/Baseball Savant
OK, I lower the pie too skinny. All 4 of those gamers are above the median double play-per-PA ratio, however Rodríguez has barely performed, and Quero is barely above the median. Let’s loosen the restrictions slightly: Dwelling-to-first of 4.6 seconds or slower, groundball charge of 47% or greater, and 200 or extra PA.
These Guys Ought to Actually Be Double Play Magnets
Identify
Workforce
Dwelling-to-First
PA
GDP
GB%
GDP Price
Junior Caminero
TBR
4.65
333
22
47.4%
6.61%
Joey Bart
PIT
4.70
205
11
52.0%
5.37%
Alec Bohm
PHI
4.64
342
13
51.3%
3.80%
Josh Bell
WSN
4.79
282
8
49.0%
2.84%
Corey Seager
Tex 4.75 230 6 48.7% 2.61% Yandy Díaz TBR 4.62 351 9 54.7% 2.56%
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
4.78
249
6
47.6%
2.41%
Ke’Bryan Hayes
PIT
4.61
311
7
49.6%
2.25%
Keibert ruiz
WSN
4.89
259
4
47.8%
1.54%
SOURCE: FanGraphs/Baseball Savant
That is extra prefer it. We’ve obtained Caminero, plus Alec Bohm, who’s one of many Nationwide League leaders. However there are a pair different variables I wish to attempt.
The opposite factor about Caminero is he hits the ball extremely laborious. Hitting the ball laborious, on the bottom, will increase the probabilities that the ball will get into the outfield, by way of the fielders, for a base hit. Nevertheless it’s a double-edged sword; a hard-hit grounder that doesn’t discover a gap solely will get to the infielders quicker, and subsequently offers them extra time to get each outs.
A hitter with huge groundball exit velocities must have a excessive BABIP on these batted balls, however he additionally would hit into a number of double performs.
After wanting into the numbers, what I discovered stunned me slightly.
Groundball Outcomes by Exit Velo, 2023-Current
EV Vary
% of Complete GB
Batting Common
GDP%*
<=60 8.4 .227 7.0 61-70 8.9 .130 23.5 71-80 14.2 .131 32.9 81-90 17.8 .183 36.8 91-95 10.5 .254 38.4 96-100 11.7 .354 38.4 101-110 16.4 .425 36.6 111+ 34.8 .556 0.0
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
*Share of groundballs with a runner on first base and fewer than two outs that flip right into a double play
The connection between groundball exit velocity and BABIP isn’t linear, as a result of a 40-mph flop shot that lands on the third final analysis 50 toes from anybody is at all times going to show right into a single. However above a sure threshold of exit velo, the tougher you hit a ball the extra probably it’s to show right into a base hit.
The stunning factor is that the identical relationship didn’t exist for double performs. Grounders under 60 mph are too smooth to show two on, however every part else turns right into a double play on a couple of third of related alternatives. For each bucket 71 mph up, a groundball with a runner on first and fewer than two outs has between a 32.9% and a 38.4% probability of being transformed right into a double play.
The Similar Factor, however for Junior
EV Vary
% of Complete GB (League)
% of Complete GB (Caminero)
AVG
GDP%
<=60 8.4 3.4 .250 0.0 61-70 8.9 11.0 .154 25.5 71-80 14.2 10.2 .083 57.1 81-90 17.8 11.0 .077 66.6 91-95 10.5 8.5 .000 100.0 96-100 11.7 11.0 .077 66.6 101-110 16.4 22.0 .346 50.0 111+ 0.6 5.1 .333 0.0
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Nothing is getting by way of for Caminero, even at excessive exit velocities. And when there’s a possibility to show a double play, the ball not getting by way of to the outfield means it turns into two outs, not one.
However the place you hit the ball issues.
Groundball and Double Play Price by Fielder
Fielder
% of IFGB
GDP%*
Pitcher
8.2
19.6
Catcher
0.7
3.8
First Base
14.3
21.5
Second Base
25.4
44.7
Third Base
23.6
37.8
Shortstop
27.8
54.1
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
2023-Current
*Groundballs with runner on first and fewer than two outs
It shouldn’t be stunning that balls hit to the three non-first base infielders generate the very best double play conversion charge. Caminero hits 78.0% of his grounders to these positions, which isn’t really that uncommon, particularly for a right-handed hitter.
What’s uncommon is that throughout the complete league this 12 months, 7.1% of pull-side grounders by right-handed hitters — no matter base-out state — have was double performs. For Caminero, that quantity is 25.0%. How is that even doable?
It’s as a result of Caminero involves the plate with a runner on first and fewer than two outs greater than virtually anybody within the league. And virtually everybody who hits in these conditions rather a lot grounds into a number of double performs.
Hitters With the Most Double Play Alternatives
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Soto and Alonso are among the many league leaders in GDP this 12 months. Decide grounded into 22 double performs final 12 months, which is half a season’s work for Caminero however rather a lot for anybody else. Olson’s been in double digits each full season since 2018. Fly ball guys like Albies, Rooker, and Suzuki don’t hit into that many double performs, however pace isn’t as a lot of a assist as you’d assume. Chourio and Rodríguez can completely motor, and so they get doubled up on a regular basis.
I went into this train searching for one magic motive why Caminero can’t cease hitting into double performs, and there isn’t one. It’s that he hits each stereotype for a man who makes outs two at a time: Groundball hitter, right-handed, sluggish, comes up with runners on base on a regular basis. Even with all these comorbidities, what he’s doing is sort of ridiculous, however we’re within the realm of the explicable now.
