Cary Edmondson-Imagn Photographs
For the Atlanta Braves, the 2025 season is a disasterpiece. Final season had its share of disappointments, however the lengthy stretches of middling play nonetheless left the Braves in a playoff spot by the tiniest of margins. After 2024, it was affordable to remain the course; no must smash the pink panic button like an unsupervised little one in an elevator. This time round, nevertheless, the Braves are more likely to end the season with someplace round 90 losses, making merely battening down the hatches and ready for sunnier climate so much riskier of a technique. I cranked up ZiPS to see how a lot tinkering the pc thinks Atlanta must do with the intention to compete in 2026.
The Good
On the plus facet, the Braves aren’t attempting to construct a successful workforce out of nothing. A lot of the offensive core stays intact and is definitely functioning fairly effectively. Ronald Acuña Jr. has made a profitable return from a second torn ACL and has been taking part in at a 7-WAR tempo. After all, he’s out in the meanwhile with one other Achilles harm, however this seems to be a minor concern, comparatively talking, and given his historical past and Atlanta’s place within the standings, there’s no actual motive to not be conservative together with his restoration. ZiPS is understandably down on his harm danger, however he nonetheless will get his common dynamite projection for 2026, even when it’s somewhat diminished from a taking part in time perspective:
Zips Undertaking – Ronald Acuña Jr.
Yr
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.301
.409
.537
462
109
139
24
2
27
78
79
111
29
159
5.4
2027
.295
.405
.521
468
109
138
24
2
26
77
81
111
26
154
5.1
2028
.288
.399
.502
466
106
134
23
1
25
75
81
109
23
147
4.6
Braves followers have understandably blended emotions about seeing Freddie Freeman ageing effectively in one other uniform, however Matt Olson has been a lot better this season than he was in his down 2024, to the purpose he’s truly edging out Freeman in WAR for the yr! A repeat of 2023 probably isn’t within the playing cards for Olson, however he ought to proceed to be roughly the identical participant he’s been outdoors of that increase season, albeit with gradual decline anticipated in his 30s:
ZiPS Projection – Matt Olson
Yr
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.252
.346
.470
560
82
141
33
1
29
95
78
155
0
123
3.3
2027
.245
.337
.448
527
73
129
30
1
25
84
71
147
0
115
2.4
2028
.239
.331
.428
486
64
116
27
1
21
74
65
138
0
108
1.8
Austin Riley is extra of a query mark, as he’s had each of the final two seasons marred by accidents: first a fractured hand that ended his 2024 prematurely, after which a number of stomach accidents which have lowered his 2025 attendance. He’s nonetheless on the fitting facet of 30, and whereas we will count on him to largely bounce again, after two underwhelming seasons, you possibly can’t pen him down for the 5 or 6 WAR he put up yearly from 2021 to 2023:
ZiPS Projection – Austin Riley
Yr
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.266
.330
.467
568
82
151
30
3
26
86
49
163
2
117
3.6
2027
.263
.329
.458
552
79
145
29
2
25
82
49
157
2
115
3.3
2028
.259
.326
.447
532
75
138
27
2
23
77
47
150
2
111
2.9
The catching place has been a power of the Braves, with Sean Murphy making a stable, albeit low-batting common, bounce again from an injury-laden 2024 season. Drake Baldwin has had a terrific rookie marketing campaign, and whereas I’ll chorus from making any predictions about his Rookie of the Yr probabilities — I’m a voter this yr — I don’t suppose it’s out of bounds to counsel that each voter goes to should take his case very severely. Plus, I respect that his title feels like a cleaning soap opera character, much better than mine did. Whereas Murphy and Baldwin make for a terrific tandem, every is able to being a full-time starter in his personal proper; a simpler use of Murphy in 2026 could also be a commerce to usher in expertise the workforce wants elsewhere. ZiPS has usually been fairly conservative with Baldwin, however he appears to have hit a tipping level the final two months; his projections have improved quickly month-by-month:
ZiPS Projection – Sean Murphy
Yr
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.233
.322
.443
343
41
80
16
1
18
55
36
104
0
109
3.0
2027
.227
.315
.420
326
38
74
15
0
16
49
34
100
0
101
2.5
2028
.220
.311
.405
304
34
67
14
0
14
43
32
96
0
96
2.1
ZiPS Projection – Drake Baldwin
Yr
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.264
.351
.449
356
42
94
15
0
17
59
43
90
0
119
3.2
2027
.259
.345
.445
375
44
97
16
0
18
62
45
93
0
117
3.2
2028
.257
.345
.440
389
45
100
17
0
18
65
48
94
0
115
3.3
The Unhealthy
Seeing Spencer strides wholesome has been nice. Seeing Spencer Strider truly pitch has been much less enjoyable, particularly since recollections of his first yr and a half within the majors are contemporary. His fastball isn’t as explosive because it as soon as was, and in contrast to in 2022 and 2023, hitters have been in a position to get at it early sufficient to drag it a great distance. Whereas he throws a curveball and changeup, he’s principally a two-pitch pitcher, which is an issue when a type of pitches goes south. He seems like he wants to noticeably regulate his repertoire this offseason. ZiPS is hopeful he’ll be higher in his second yr again from Tommy John surgical procedure (errr…inside brace surgical procedure -DS), however it’s an enormous drop from his earlier projections, which had him up with the most effective pitchers within the league:
ZiPS Projection – Spencer Strider
Yr
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
11
7
3.49
25
24
134.0
107
52
16
41
170
117
2.6
2027
11
7
3.58
25
24
135.7
110
54
17
40
167
114
2.5
2028
11
8
3.68
26
25
142.0
118
58
18
41
168
111
2.4
On the plus facet, Michael Harris II has been fairly stable for the reason that begin of July, with a .317/.337/.577 triple-slash over 36 video games. However he was so abysmal for the primary three months of the season that this run has merely served to get his stats as much as one thing midway approaching respectability. He isn’t a 33-year-old veteran attempting to carry off decline; he’s a 24-year-old who you’d hope to see rounding out his sport and taking a step ahead, not simply attempting to salvage a awful yr. ZiPS had large hopes for Harris breaking out in 2025 — that’s one projection that isn’t wanting particularly prescient — and it nonetheless offers him a stable projection for 2026, however it has misplaced a few of its verve:
ZiPS Projection – Michael Harris II
Yr
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.270
.308
.431
534
67
144
27
4
17
75
26
114
18
101
3.3
2027
.274
.314
.442
536
69
147
28
4
18
77
28
111
17
106
3.6
2028
.276
.317
.443
537
70
148
28
4
18
77
29
109
16
107
3.7
There’s been no such salvaging of the season relating to Ozzie Albies. Selecting up his $7 million membership choice for subsequent yr continues to be clearly the fitting name, however his projections have taken a really severe hit. In contrast to Harris, Albies additionally underperformed in 2024, and whereas he’s relatively younger for a longtime participant to simply disappear absent an harm, it has occurred (see Carlos Baerga or, arguably, Edgar Renteria). The fractured wrist that price him time in 2024 is an inadequate rationalization for his continued decline:
ZiPS Projection – Ozzie Albies
Yr
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.246
.307
.385
512
66
126
25
2
14
65
41
89
9
90
1.6
2027
.246
.307
.383
488
63
120
24
2
13
61
39
86
8
89
1.4
2028
.245
.306
.381
457
58
112
22
2
12
56
37
81
7
88
1.1
What’s extra, the workforce’s depth tasks to be completely atrocious. ZiPS continues to be pretty optimistic about Nacho Alvarez Jr.however it sees little likelihood of another assist coming from the farm within the close to future. The very best 2026 projection for a Braves minor league hitter in the meanwhile is Eddys Leonard at 0.9 WAR, and he was signed after being launched from Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate. That implies that with no extra aggressive method to their Plan B and Plan C expertise, each harm in Atlanta will once more have an enormous influence past the misplaced participant himself. Marcell Ozuna is a free agent and in decline, and dropping his bat, which has been surprisingly potent the previous couple of years, leaves one other gap in a lineup the Braves have had hassle filling out.
The Ugly
Atlanta was one of the injured groups in baseball in 2024, which served to partially clarify the workforce’s middling season. However whereas the Braves have misplaced a variety of pitchers to harm once more this yr, the offense has usually been wholesome, and the workforce is to this point again that the accidents wanted to elucidate their 2025 efficiency would virtually have to incorporate an Ebola outbreak.
There are good causes to suppose that Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo Lópezand Grant Holmes may kind a reasonably good rotation with Strider, however all are presently out with harm, together with the Braves prospect ZiPS has preferred the most effective, AJ Smith-Shawver. And Smith-Shawver’s not going to be again any time quickly, as he went the Tommy John route a few months in the past. The opposite 4 may all be pluses in 2026, however there are severe dangers. Sale’s harm isn’t arm associated, however he additionally has an extended harm historical past, which implies you possibly can’t simply depend upon getting 150 innings from him in any given season. López has missed the season with shoulder surgical procedure, and whereas the workforce seems to be hopeful, shoulder accidents don’t have the identical report of restoration that elbows do. Holmes is attempting to rehab a partial UCL tear, and I don’t suppose I’ve to let you know these related dangers. ZiPS loves Schwellenbach — because it did earlier than the season — however an elbow fracture is nothing to scoff at for a pitcher.
What’s Subsequent?
If I do a really early 2026 projected standings for the NL East, with all of the groups solely having the gamers beneath contract for subsequent season on their respective rosters, the Braves undertaking for simply an 79-83 report, third within the division and effectively behind the Phillies and Mets. Whereas the front-end expertise continues to be there, ZiPS cares in regards to the workforce’s depth and harm standing, and the unsure pitching coupled with the holes within the lineup put a damper on the workforce’s win whole in a lot of the simulations. Accidents will occur, and the present roster is ill-equipped to climate them.
The Braves aren’t low-cost within the sense of the Rays and Marlins, however they do try to spend as effectively as doable. I don’t suppose they’ll get away with that any longer; the instances name for inefficiency, not thrift. Whereas the rotation could possibly be good, the workforce wants extra certainty. And in the event that they find yourself with an excessive amount of beginning pitching? Nicely, no workforce has ever had that be an precise drawback. There are many attention-grabbing pitchers on the market, from Dylan Stop to Framber Valdez to Ranger Suárezand Michael King is more likely to be part of them. There are additionally a variety of fascinating maybes, like Brandon Woodruff, Shane Bieberand Zac Gallenhowever the Braves aren’t ready the place they need to be chasing maybes. They’ve ample provide of these.
Equally, hanging round all winter to see which free brokers are left unsigned in March, after which bringing in a pair to fill out the roster, isn’t going to work. The Braves don’t essentially must signal a famous person, although one is at all times welcome. As a substitute, this can be a roster that simply screams for a sturdy corps of veteran position gamers, even when Atlanta has to pay a bit extra for them.
So are the Atlanta Braves doomed? No. However one thing has to alter within the workforce’s method for it to return to being a top-tier contender in 2026.
