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To say the final two-plus years haven’t gone the way in which Sandy Alcantara had hoped can be a large understatement. Coming off profitable the NL Cy Younger award in 2022, his numbers dipped the next season, and he was shut down that September with a flexor pressure that required Tommy John surgical procedure in October. He returned this spring together with his velocity and motion intact, however his efficiency to begin to the season was tough; he ended April with an 8.31 ERA. The excitement concerning the Marlins buying and selling Alcantara, a seemingly inevitable consequence for a franchise that’s run like a glorified farm affiliate to the remainder of baseball, died down quickly. Positive, issues have gone higher for the ace not too long ago, however his ERA continues to be inflated at 7.01, albeit with a comparatively sunny 4.55 FIP. Has he executed sufficient to fetch a excessive value if the Marlins commerce him within the coming weeks?
My colleague Michael Baumann wrote about Alcantara again at first of Might, specializing in the righty’s poor April. One of the regarding features of that dreadful begin was his 14% stroll fee, or 5.9 free passes per 9 innings. It wasn’t a lot a difficulty of management — Alcantara’s zone share was just like previous seasons — however one in all command. You’ll be able to see the distinction between Alcantara’s finest seasons and April in botCmd (PitchingBot) and Location+ (Stuff+).
Command/Location – Sandy Alcantara
Break up
botCmd
Location+
April 2025
47
88
2023
62
98
2022
62
103
2021
50
105
2020
56
104
The speed and form of his pitches may need been there, however the repertoire estimation instruments noticed the issue. And the excellent news is that as Alcantara has made an increasing number of wholesome begins, these numbers have trended in a optimistic route. Taking these identical numbers, however as a substitute Alcantara’s five-start shifting averages, exhibits his gradual however regular progress towards righting the ship.
2025 Command/Location – Sandy Alcantara
(Transferring Common)
Begin
botCmd
Location+
5
51
94
6
49
91
7
48
88
8
47
91
9
46
93
10
46
95
11
50
98
12
52
97
13
59
102
14
59
102
15
59
102
16
63
108
17
61
108
Two of one of the best indicators of future stroll fee, outdoors of the particular stroll fee, are first-strike share and out-of-zone swing share. Usually, if there’s a mismatch between a pitcher’s stroll fee and these numbers, that stroll fee isn’t as secure as you’d anticipate.
2025 O-Swing and F-Strike – Sandy Alcantara
(Transferring Common)
Begin
O-Swing
F-Strike
5
25.2%
60.7%
6
23.0%
61.7%
7
23.9%
66.3%
8
23.0%
59.7%
9
24.3%
58.5%
10
23.6%
55.3%
11
27.0%
57.6%
12
28.6%
57.2%
13
30.5%
67.2%
14
33.2%
64.5%
15
32.9%
64.0%
16
31.8%
65.1%
17
30.3%
63.7%
Utilizing the zStats constructed into ZiPS additionally lends credence to one thing being very off in April and Might for Alcantara. Forward of his scheduled begin tonight, he has allowed 35 walks in 2025, however from the plate self-discipline knowledge, zBB would anticipate him to have allowed solely 24. Nearly the complete discrepancy relies on his efficiency in April and Might, together with his stroll knowledge since wanting much more typical. Alcantara often isn’t somebody whose outcomes differ from what zBB tasks; coming into the 2025 season, zBB estimated 277 walks for his profession in comparison with the 273 he’d truly allowed.
If the shortage of command early on was creating some bizarre numbers in Alcantara’s profile, I’m hypothesizing that there’s one other actual contributing issue to his early woes: Warning. In truth, it is smart {that a} pitcher coming off a critical damage would possibly take a extra conservative strategy than he would have in any other case. Alcantara was recurrently falling behind within the rely, at beneath 60% in every of his first three begins. And when falling behind, it’s a pure inclination to go along with the secure, bog-standard four-seamer. Downside is, the vanilla fastball has by no means been a profitable taste for Alcantara. He threw his fastball practically a 3rd of the time when behind in April and Might, principally in hittable areas, and batters slugged .864 in opposition to it.
Because the begin of June, this utilization has modified, by an quantity that I’m assured couldn’t have occurred accidentally. His four-seamer utilization when behind within the rely has dropped from 29% over the primary two months to beneath 10% since then. In contrast, his slider utilization when behind within the rely elevated from 12% throughout April and Might to 31% in June and July. He appears to be trusting his stuff once more.
Whereas Alcantara’s outlook nonetheless is much less sunny than it was earlier than the season, not one of the projection techniques housed right here have been terribly alarmed by the variety of runs he’s allowed, with all of the computer systems agreeing that he can be a worthy pickup if he’s traded earlier than the tip of the month. What could also be missing in 2025 flash is arguably greater than compensated for by a team-friendly contract. Alcantara’s potential new employer would even have his companies subsequent season on a really cheap one-year, $17.3 million contract with an possibility for a similar determine in 2027. He’s not actually a short-term rental, as are a lot of the pitchers anticipated to be out there, and that may be tempting for a staff that also plans on contending subsequent yr and desires worth in return for good prospects. The ZiPS projections for Alcantara see a pitcher whom groups needs to be pleased to have.
ZiPS Projection – Sandy Alcantara
Yr w l period fip g GS IP H er HR BB SO ERA+ WAR 2025 3 3.50 10 63.0 53 118 1.2 2026 8 9 3.78 26 154 67 15 40 125 112 8.98 3.88 25 144.7 114 110 2.4
Even when Alcantara by no means returns to his 2022 kind, there simply aren’t many different choices more likely to be out there on the deadline who can carry out on the degree of those projections. The White Sox already traded their fascinating veteran starters ultimately yr’s deadline and through the offseason, and contemplating the Rockies haven’t dealt their starters at earlier deadlines, we shouldn’t anticipate them to commerce Germán Márquez or Kyle Freeland this time round. The Nationals have Michael Soroka to commerce, however he doesn’t provide the upside of Alcantara. Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs are each beneath contract with the Athletics via the tip of subsequent season, which is likely to be interesting for contending golf equipment, however their mediocre efficiency this yr might suppress their commerce worth. If the A’s hope to make a Wild Card push in 2026, they may select to maintain the 2 pitchers to fill out their rotation subsequent yr, particularly if the prospect packages provided in return are gentle. Something you hear concerning the Pirates probably buying and selling Paul scenes is sort of definitely fan fiction. Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallenand Zach Eflin have worth, however they’re free brokers this offseason. Moreover, the Diamondbacks would possibly nonetheless be in rivalry on the finish of the month and resolve to carry on to Kelly and Gallen.
Is Sandy Alcantara the pitcher he was when he unanimously received the Cy Younger award over Max Fried? No, however he’s probably loads higher than he’s proven at instances this season, and he’s slowly and steadily getting again to the place he must be.
