12:01
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us!
12:02
Jay Jaffe: For the fifth straight Tuesday, we’re doing this — which I believe may be a season excessive. A scarcity of journey will do this.
12:05
Jay Jaffe: I’m engaged on a chunk concerning the remaining playoff races. it’s not Staff Entropy however it’s what now we have, and it’s useful to grasp the tiebreakers and remaining eventualities
12:08
Jay Jaffe: Pouring one out for Robert Redford, whom I notably liked in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Child, and The Sting (each with Paul Newman). Should you’re younger sufficient that these films aren’t acquainted to you, by all means waste no time in seeing them. As for The Pure and the baseball connection, eh, i don’t hate the film like i do Discipline of Desires, however it’s obtained issues.
12:08
Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the present…
12:08
sb4321: Cal Raleigh’s framing numbers are far and wide. DRS has him at 5. Statcast has him at 4. FanGraphs has him at 9.9. Baseball Prospectus has him at 11.4.
Which quantity is closest to correct in your opinion?
12:08
Jay Jaffe: Good grief.
12:10
Jay Jaffe: All of these are estimates based mostly on fashions drawn from years of empirical knowledge. They take related inputs, however would possibly draw from differing pattern sizes, and there’s no proper or fallacious.
12:11
Jay Jaffe: These are all in the identical ballpark, and as with all defensive knowledge, that’s about as correct as you’re more likely to get. Personally, i are likely to concentrate on our FRM and on Statcast’s framing, because it breaks down the info by areas of the strike zone.
12:11
Jay Jaffe: Cal Raleigh’s framing is value someplace from half a win to a win.
12:11
Playoffs, these guys?!: Hey Jay, clearly the brewers have some common season magic. Do you see them doing something within the playoffs this yr?
12:14
Jay Jaffe: Certain. They’re going to get a first-round bye after which play the winner of one of many Wild Card Sequence; proper now it might be the winner of the Padres/Cubs collection. They’ve obtained distinctive pitching and it wouldn’t shock me in the event that they cease any of these groups of their tracks — together with the Dodgers, from whom they swept the season collection.
12:15
Jay Jaffe: As for whether or not they can get to the World Sequence, I believe their destiny may have not less than one thing to do with the accidents the opposite NL groups are coping with. However I believe it is a sturdy workforce.
12:16
sodo mojo: After the White Sox set the trendy period for losses within the trendy period in 2024 the Rockies had been like maintain my beer and are about to set the file for unfavorable run differential by a workforce within the trendy period. Is there an apparent trigger for this apart from each these groups appear to be horribly mis managed?
12:18
Jay Jaffe: The run differential factor actually owes a good bit to Coors Discipline, however each of these groups are certainly horribly run, and largely unwilling to spend cash. I believe the Rockies are the more serious one as a result of they alter instructions each couple of years to no avail.
12:19
Mike Trout Masks Duplicate: Jay – I do know Nick Kurtz successfully has AL ROY locked up…however I’ve been questioning whether or not Dillon Dingler nonetheless has rookie eligibility? He has had an excellent, maybe underappreciated, season. I’ve been shocked to not see him talked about but as a ROY candidate…but when he’s not eligible, that’d clarify it.
12:20
Jay Jaffe: Dingler isn’t a rookie because of the variety of days he spent on the Tigers’ roster in 2024. It seems he was up from July 29 onward
12:21
War2D2: Hello Jay! Talking of magic numbers, what’s your intestine feeling on the playoffs? Only a wild-ass guess on the CS and World Sequence matchups. I’m guessing it’s Philly v. SD and TOR vs. Seattle, SD vs. TOR within the WS. Basing that on nothing however present vibes and who appears to be heating up.
12:23
Jay Jaffe: Throwing darts right here, Phillies-Brewers NLCS, Purple Sox-Tigers ALCS, Phillies over Tigers World Sequence.
I’ve completely no thought how Boston would pull that off besides that I presume they’ll smoke the Yankees within the ALWC.
12:24
Sleve McDichael: Has there ever truly been a commissioner who’s a very good particular person? Looks as if they’re all solely shills for millionaires/billionaires and shitty in direction of the gamers. (Clearly they’re paid immediately by the homeowners, not the gamers)
12:27
Jay Jaffe: I believe there’s one thing to be mentioned for Completely satisfied Chandler, who permitted Jackie Robinson’s contract and was usually supportive of integration, and established the primary pension fund for main league gamers, which made him “the gamers’ commissioner.” That mentioned, he was heavy-handed when it got here to the Mexican League
12:28
Jay Jaffe: He was a politician from Kentucky earlier than he grew to become commissioner so I’m positive he had some questionable actions in that capability, so i can’t say whether or not he was a very good particular person, however he may need been the most effective commish.
12:29
Jeff from Toronto: How excited ought to Jays followers be about Yesavage?
12:29
Visitor: trey yesavage >> skenes
12:31
Jay Jaffe: Nice debut final evening, clearly. I believe it’s a stretch to suppose he’s higher than Skenes although I think about that one was submitted firmly tongue-in-cheek. I believe anytime a playoff-bound workforce calls up a participant in September who seems to be like they may also help within the postseason — who may be the October Shock — it’s notably thrilling, however like all younger pitcher I count on he’s going to face his share of challenges and I doubt he’s going to be anointed the Recreation 1 starter
12:32
The M’s solely win once I’m overseas: What’s your beef with Discipline of Desires?
12:34
Jay Jaffe: As I’ve mentioned on this very discussion board, my principal beef with the film is that it by no means confronts the matter of race, which is especially related once they modified the character performed by James Earl Jones from white in Kinsella’s guide to Black on the display — after which he rhapsodizes about Outdated Timey Baseball with out acknowledging the distress of segregation.
There’s much more; I’ll defer to Craig Calcaterra https://craigcalcaterra.com/weblog/field-of-dreams-is-absolutely-terribl…
12:35
S.: Does Mike Trout ever win a WS ring with the Angels?
12:35
Jay Jaffe: not until Arte sells and so they strip the org from high to backside
12:39
Johnny5Alive: Additionally re: the mets. On paper, their bats are having good to nice years, however when the video games matter – late and shut – they’re fully absent. I imply has a workforce each not received a single sport being down within the eighth inning in a season? absolutely even the rockies and whitesox have received a few of these video games.
12:41
Jay Jaffe: I noticed that they’re one thing like 0-60 in that context and sure, that appears dangerous, however that’s only one cherry-picked stat. it doesn’t clarify why, for instance, they’ve 8 walk-off wins, which is tied for ninth and simply three fewer than the main workforce (Brewers).
12:42
Jay Jaffe: That mentioned, the Mets’ clutch rating — a measure of how a lot better or worse a workforce hits (or pitches) in higher-leverage conditions than lower-lev ones — is the majors’ fifth worst on the offensive aspect… and third-worst on the pitching aspect. ouch
12:42
Jaymes: Hey Jay, Guardians are heating up, and are going through 6 video games in opposition to the Tigers, and three in opposition to the playoff hungry rangers. Do you suppose they’ve an opportunity to sneak into the fifth or sixth seed, or possibly even win the Central?
12:44
Jay Jaffe: our Playoff Odds give them a 1.5% probability of successful the division — which might require them to beat a 6.5-game deficit with 13 to play — and an 11.1% probability of creating the playoffs. That’s a big shot however not one it is best to get your hopes too excessive about. I don’t see the Tigers rolling over for them, for one factor.
12:45
bringbackpologrounds: I loved the Betts article, Jay. Do you suppose he has an opportunity at 100 bWAR? He has to common about 3.5 WAR for the final 7 years of his contract.
12:46
Jay Jaffe: It’s most likely a long-shot. he’s obtained 4.8 WAR in a down offensive yr however he’s not going to be an above-average SS eternally, and he’s liable to getting banged up. I’d guess he’s obtained about ~15 WAR remaining
12:46
Phil: Julio Franco’s exceptional profession got here up throughout in the present day’s Successfully Wild. Visitor Adam Darowski opined that Franco would have had 3100 or 3200 hits if he’d spent his entire profession in MLB. Would this make him a Corridor-of-Famer, to you?
12:48
Jay Jaffe: if he obtained to three,000 hits, together with his near-.300 AVG he’d completely be within the Corridor of Fame.
12:50
Bosoxforlife: When an important participant fades as he ages does that have an effect on the way in which you take a look at his HOF electability. Am I right in assuming that the age at which the inevitable decline happens can be an necessary issue? Andruw Jones is an apparent instance of early collapse and Paul Goldschmidt is the participant I’m pondering of particularly.
12:52
Jay Jaffe: Greatness is available in many sizes and styles each almost about the bodily features and the profession form. I’m nonetheless primarily going to guage a candidate by your entire physique of labor, together with his peak, and a excessive peak like these of Andruw and Goldschmidt can offset an early decline. Each have practically equivalent JAWS (54.6 to 54.4) and that’s fairly absolutely a Corridor of Famer
12:53
Matt VW: Is Okay-Rod 2002 the most effective October shock on file?
12:55
Jay Jaffe: Randy Arozarena’s 2020 involves thoughts as the highest one — 10 homers, and nonetheless rookie-qualified the subsequent season. Evan Carter in 2023 is one other
12:56
Darryl Vanilla: If McLean has two extra begins like his first six and is behind solely Shaw in WAR, what are his prospects for rookie of the yr?
12:58
Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose ROY voting is as WAR-driven as, say, MVP voting as a result of rookies could arrive at completely different occasions. I wouldn’t count on Shaw to win based mostly on his low batting common. Now we have Isaac Collins, Drake Baldwin and Caleb Durbin all clustered inside .1 WAR, and Cade Horton standing out on the pitching aspect. I’d guess it’s both Horton or Baldwin.
12:58
Kevin: It appears a lockout after subsequent season is inevitable. What p.c probability would you give to common season video games being misplaced in 2027? To half the season or extra being misplaced?
12:59
Jay Jaffe: do you not have already got sufficient uncertainty, dangerous vibes, and impending doom in your life to be asking about one thing like this over which you’ve completely zero management?
1:00
Jay Jaffe: Severely, begin worrying about it when the homeowners lock the gamers out, and know that the stuff virtually at all times will get sorted out with little or no precise interruption as a result of MLB is a money-making machine
1:00
AA++: How a lot does Ohtani should be to be inducted into the Corridor of Fame?
1:01
Jay Jaffe: I believe he already passes the bus check.
1:01
The M’s solely win once I’m overseas: Ah, tremendous truthful level on Discipline of Desires. Haven’t watched it since I used to be a child and didn’t take into consideration these issues. Will cross it off the ever-shortening checklist of nostalgic films to re-watch. Thanks tor linking the longer-form article too!
1:03
Jay Jaffe: rewatch it if you would like — it’s superb to revisit issues with a crucial eye, I believe that’s an important alternative for progress.
1:03
md: re: playoff guesses, what’s obtained Jay not believing within the Dodgers? I’ve already despatched them goodbye into the sundown however we come to you for rationality
1:03
Jay Jaffe: have you ever seen that bullpen?
1:06
Jay Jaffe: it’s an unsettlingly dangerous bullpen the place accidents are solely a part of the issue. I don’t have any confidence that Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen, Kirby Yates et al are going to have the ability to nail something down.
1:07
Eli: I used to be taking a look at Ron Guidry’s stats lately and to not play the “Higher than Jack Morris” sport however given the NY media market and his ’78 season, is he a potential ’81 strike sufferer? Or perhaps a nice full ’81 season wouldn’t have made an actual distinction within the BBWAA’s thoughts(s)?
1:09
Jay Jaffe: Guidry went 11-5 with a 2.76 ERA (129 ERA+) and completed seventh within the AL Cy voting that yr (Morrs, 14-7, 3.05 was truly fairly good and completed third). I believe Guidry would have needed to win practically all of his remaining begins to get to twenty wins, and as it’s, he obtained to pitch within the World Sequence and compete for a 3rd ring… however Pedro Guerrero and Steve Yeager had different concepts.
1:10
Jay Jaffe: (these two hit back-to-back solo homers off Guidry within the seventh inning of Recreation 5)
1:10
Jay Jaffe: I believe Guidry nonetheless would have been wanting the quantity wanted to impress HOF voters
1:12
Captainjameshook: Are The Dbacks going to overhaul the Mets and reprise the Tigers’ unload and get in from final yr? And if that’s the case, will this have any impact on future FO’s taking a look at their depth on the deadline and saying eff it, let’s get some pipeline expertise and nonetheless see if we are able to sneak in?
1:14
Jay Jaffe: I’m not holding my breath for the Diamondbacks however positive, it may occur. I do suppose that particularly now that the playoffs have such a low bar to entry we’ll see extra tales like this. Individuals overlook however even in 206, when the Yankees offered off on the deadline and obtained Gleyber Torres within the Chapman deal, they gave a run for awhile thanks largely to Gary Sanchez and Tyler Austin; if Aaron Decide had hit like he did in 2017, it might have been even nearer.
1:15
Porcho Villa: What do you make of Framber Valdez’s current struggles? Rollercoaster of a season, from early struggles to a protracted stretch of pure dominance and now again in a deep hunch. Recognizing that that is anecdotal armchair psychology, I’ve seen him get rattled simply throughout begins all through his profession. With that in thoughts I can’t assist questioning if the ridiculous crossing-up-his-catcher incident and its ensuing controversy coupled together with his expiring contract are weighing him down on a human stage.
1:18
Jay Jaffe: Possibly there’s one thing to what you’re saying, however absent him explaining his mindset I’m reluctant to ascribe psychological causes to regular efficiency fluctuations. I believe he’s having a fairly typical Framber season — possibly slightly streakier than regular, and I’m wondering if the workload of 4 straight seasons with 175+ innings, plus postseason work, is catching as much as him.
1:19
Clyde: World’s greatest Luis Urias fan right here. Time to maneuver on?
1:20
Jay Jaffe: Didn’t have an excellent season however he’s solely 28. I’m positive we haven’t seen the final of him.
1:21
Pirates Hurdles: I believe Completely satisfied’s protection of the usage of the N-word is sort of a bit worse than a 40 yr outdated film failing to take care of race when MLB itself had barely started to take action. The guide and story don’t have anything to do with that.
1:24
Jay Jaffe: To the one who requested about Bobby Bonds and the HOF, i answered a really related query in final week’s chat.
1:24
TugMcGrawFan1996: The 2 #1 groups within the AL/NL are related in that they’ve mainly no beneath substitute stage gamers (the Blue Jays have one, and it’s their nearer who nonetheless has 30 saves). What does this say about roster development wrt focusing much less on excessive ceiling guys and extra on excessive flooring guys?
1:26
Jay Jaffe: Generally it’s high-floor groups with out massive weaknesses which are extra profitable, generally it’s stars-and-scrubs groups, and the context issues. Over the course of 162 video games, depth is a big deal, however within the playoffs, a better share of the enjoying time goes to the highest ~15-16 guys on the roster so having increased top-end helps
1:26
Karl Hungus: I believe Ray Liotta as Joe Jackson batting proper and throwing left is worse.
1:27
Jay Jaffe: One other strike in opposition to the film. And with that, i’m calling it a day for this chat. Thanks a lot for stopping by!
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior author for FanGraphs, the writer of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Rating) metric for Corridor of Fame evaluation. He based the Futility Infielder web site (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports activities Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring visitor on MLB Community and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Corridor of Fame voter since 2021. Observe him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
