Rob Schumacher/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK and Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports activities
Jordan Montgomery isn’t prone to pitch for the Diamondbacks once more. Brandon Pfaadt may very well be pitching for them nicely into the subsequent decade. That’s the upshot of an eventful few days for the Diamondbacks rotation, as Montgomery revealed final week that he would bear Tommy John surgical procedure and miss the 2025 season, whereas Pfaadt agreed to a five-year, $45 million extension that features a few extra possibility years.
For the 32-year-old Montgomery – who was outpitched by Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson on this spring’s battle for the fifth starter job — that is the most recent twist in a saga that has largely been an sad one ever since he helped the Rangers win the 2023 World Collection. He hit the market on a excessive be aware after being dealt forward of the commerce deadline for the second straight season; between his time with the Cardinals and Rangers in 2023, he set profession bests whereas posting the majors’ eighth-lowest ERA (3.20) and rating twelfth in WAR (4.3). He capped that with a 2.90 ERA in 31 postseason innings, beginning a pair of series-opening mixed shutouts in opposition to the Rays (ALWCS) and the Astros (ALCS), and chipping in 2 1/3 innings of emergency reduction following Max Scherzer’s injury-related exit in Recreation 7 of the ALCS. Although he was knocked round by the Diamondbacks in Recreation 2 of the World Collection, it didn’t cease Texas from profitable its first championship.
Off of that run, Montgomery and agent Scott Boras reportedly set their sights on a contract topping the seven-year, $172 million extension that Aaron Nola signed with the Phillies shortly after the offseason started, however as with Boras’ different high-profile shoppers that winter, specifically Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Blake Snell, the large deal envisioned for Montgomery by no means materialized, and he lingered unsigned previous the beginning of spring coaching. He was pursued by the Purple Sox — which might have been a superb match provided that his spouse had begun a dermatology residence at a Boston-area hospital within the fall of 2023 — in addition to the Rangers, Yankees (who drafted and developed him), and Mets, amongst others. In the long run he settled for a one-year, $25 million contract with the Diamondbacks on March 29, with a $20 vesting possibility for 2025 primarily based on 10 begins, rising to $22.5 million with 18 begins and $25 million with 23 begins.
After signing, Montgomery made two begins for Arizona’s Triple-A Reno affiliate, then debuted for the Diamondbacks on April 19. Three of his first 4 begins have been good, however he struggled mightily thereafter, missed three weeks in July as a result of proper knee irritation, and was quickly relegated to the bullpen late within the season. He completed with a grotesque 6.23 ERA and 4.48 FIP, along with his strikeout charge plummeting to fifteen.6% (from 21.4% in 2023), and his stroll and homer charges each rising. His common sinker velocity fell from 93.3 mph in 2023 to 91.8 final yr, prompting the pitch to get pummeled for a .376 common and .582 slugging share. In accordance with each of our pitch modeling techniques, his stuff and command declined, along with his PitchingBot rating falling from 52 to 46 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and his Pitching+ falling from 97 to 87 (on a scale the place 100 is common).
Amid that efficiency collapse, reminders of Montgomery’s sad tour by means of free company lingered. The pitcher left the Boras Company final April to be represented by Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman, and in August he advised the Boston Herald, “(O)bviously Boras type of butchered it” close to his free company, or at the very least his pursuit by the Purple Sox following a promising introductory Zoom name.
Within the spirit of airing grievances publicly, shortly after the top of the common season, Diamondbacks managing basic companion Ken Kendrick advised the Burns & Gambo radio present that signing Montgomery had been “a horrible choice.”
“If anybody needs in charge anybody for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re speaking to the man that ought to be blamed… As a result of I introduced it to (the entrance workplace’s) consideration. I pushed for it. They agreed to it — it wasn’t in our sport plan. You understand when he was signed — proper on the finish of spring coaching. And looking out again, in hindsight, a horrible choice to take a position that cash in a man who carried out as poorly as he did. It’s our greatest mistake this season from a expertise standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.”
Kendrick’s outspokenness recalled his previous public criticism of gamers similar to Stephen Drew and Justin Upton, although on this case, he was extra cautious, pointing the finger at his personal function within the decision-marking course of quite than instantly on the participant. The outburst could have been a ploy to drive Montgomery away, however he nonetheless exercised his $22.5 million possibility, then spent the winter and spring as the topic of commerce rumors. In the meantime, the Diamondbacks landed an ace in free agent Corbin Burnes, rounding out a strong rotation that already featured Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Pfaadt, with Nelson the highest various.
Montgomery advised the Burns & Gambo present he didn’t have “damage feeling” about Kendrick’s feedback, saying, “I do know my season wasn’t nice, and I anticipate lots of myself.” He expressed the assumption that being chubby factored into his underperformance, including that he had since misplaced 20 to 25 kilos:
“I used to be heavy with Texas, however I used to be throwing nicely so it was wonderful. It’s wonderful till it’s not… I simply wasn’t actually transferring quick. I wasn’t actually transferring clear or synced up or actually doing something proper on the market. I used to be simply type of keen it to get there as a substitute of it feeling shut, so simply need the mound to really feel shut.”
In accordance to the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro, the Diamondbacks requested at the very least one group to tackle $13 million of Montgomery’s remaining wage in a possible commerce, however after discovering no takers, they appeared on monitor to fit the lefty in lengthy reduction to open the season, with Pfaadt asserting his declare on the fifth spot within the rotation. Nevertheless, only a day later, Montgomery revealed he would wish surgical procedure, telling reporters that he had been having hassle recovering from his begins after “in all probability simply attempting to throw too exhausting too quickly.” He anticipated he may obtain a shot following an MRI, however as a substitute discovered he had a big UCL tear. Now he’s dealing with his second Tommy John surgical procedure; he underwent his first in June 2018, when he was with the Yankees. Going lower than seven years between surgical procedures seems like a quite surprising end result for a pitcher who’s not an particularly exhausting thrower; in all probability, Montgomery received’t pitch a aggressive sport once more till mid-2026.
As for Pfaadt, the 26-year-old righty made his season debut in opposition to the Cubs on Saturday, permitting three runs in six innings whereas hanging out 5. He’s incomes $799,400 this yr; his five-year, $45 million covers the 2026–30 seasons, spanning not solely his arbitration seasons but in addition his closing yr of pre-arbitration and his first of free-agent eligibility. He will get a $2 million signing bonus, after which will make $3 million for 2026, with subsequent salaries of $5 million, $8 million, $11 million, and $15 million. The contract additionally features a $21 million membership possibility with a $1 million buyout for 2031, then a $25 million mutual possibility for ’32. He’ll have a five-team no-trade clause for 2030–32 as nicely.
A fifth-round decide in 2020 out of Bellarmine College in Louisville, Pfaadt entered the 2023 season ranked sixteenth on our High 100 record, a 55-FV prospect with 4 choices — fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup — able to lacking bats. He debuted with the Diamondbacks on Might 3, 2023, shortly after they minimize bait on Madison Bumgarner. He was tagged for seven runs in 4 2/3 innings by the Rangers in his first outing, and bounced forwards and backwards between Triple-A Reno and Arizona a pair instances whereas getting equally lit up; by means of his first six begins, he owned a 9.82 ERA and seven.46 FIP. Recalled once more in late July, he pitched higher; although his closing numbers (5.72 ERA and 5.18 FIP in 96 innings) have been nonetheless fairly garish, he earned sufficient belief to say a spot in Arizona’s postseason rotation. Whereas he lasted 5 or extra innings in solely two of his 5 postseason begins, he put up a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings because the Diamondbacks received 4 of them — all however his World Collection Recreation 3 begin — throughout their unlikely postseason run.
Pfaadt spent all of final season within the rotation, main the Diamondbacks in begins (32), innings (181 2/3), and WAR (3.1). His 4.71 ERA was the fourth highest of any certified NL starter, however his peripherals recommend he pitched a lot better than that, with a 24.3% strikeout charge, 5.5% stroll charge (fifth lowest within the league), and 1.19 homers per 9. Each his 3.61 FIP and three.78 xERA have been significantly decrease than his precise ERA, along with his 1.10 hole between his ERA and FIP the league’s third highest amongst qualifiers.
A better have a look at Pfaadt’s efficiency reveals that his ERA and FIP have been really in affordable alignment for the primary two-thirds of the season:
Right here’s what his splits appear like:
Brandon Pfaadt’s Late-Season Troubles in 2024
Break up
GS
IP
H
BABIP
Okay%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
By means of July 31
21
126.1
113
.278
22.4%
5.3%
1.07
3.92
3.58
August 1 Onward
11
55.1
70
.404
28.3%
6.1%
1.47
6.51
3.67
Pfaadt struck out hitters with larger frequency during the last third of the season, however the hits fell in with absurd frequency, pushed by the next barrel charge:
Brandon Pfaadt’s Late-Season Troubles in 2024, Statcast Model
Break up
BBE
EV
LA
Brl%
HH%
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
By means of July 31
369
89.2
15
7.1
40.5
.234
.235
.385
.374
.286
.285
August 1 Onward
160
89.8
12
10.7
37.7
.310
.269
.500
.446
.366
.334
As along with his ERA and FIP, Pfaadt’s precise batting common and slugging share allowed tracked carefully along with his Statcast anticipated numbers over the primary two-thirds of the season however diverged broadly over the ultimate third. All of this occurred as he really gained velocity along with his four-seam fastball (from 93.5 mph to 94.5) and improved his stuff and site in keeping with Stuff+:
Brandon Pfaadt Splits by Stuff+ in 2024
Break up
GS
Stf+ FA
Stf+ SI
Stf+ SL
Stf+ CU
Stf+ CH
Stuff+
Location+
Pitching+
By means of July 31
21
96
96
121
93
82
101
104
103
August 1 Onward
11
103
95
122
95
80
102
111
111
For what it’s value, Pfaadt’s PitchingBot splits didn’t present as a lot distinction. One factor that actually does stand out from Pfaadt’s pitch splits is that regardless of the excessive grades for his slider (sweeper, in keeping with Statcast) over each stretches, batters hit .170 and slugged .386 in opposition to the pitch by means of the season’s first 4 months, however improved to a .339 AVG and .643 SLG over the ultimate two; his barrel charge greater than doubled (from 8.1% to 16.7%) whilst his whiff charge improved barely (from 35.8% to 38%).
All of which is to say that Pfaadt may have been experiencing a run of dangerous luck. Apparently, Arizona’s BABIP allowed spiked from .300 by means of July to .328 thereafter even because the group surged and practically snagged a playoff berth. After going 58-51 (.532) by means of July, the Diamondbacks went 31-22 (.585) the remainder of the way in which, however wound up lacking a Wild Card spot due to tiebreakers.
As a result of projection techniques strip out the luck, Pfaadt is forecast to shave his ERA down to three.94, with a 3.75 FIP. ZiPS likes him even a bit higher than that (3.87 ERA, 3.62 FIP), a lot in order that he made Dan Szymborski’s Booms record, with Dan noting that Pfaadt improved his first-strike charge from 64% in 2023 to 71% final yr. With regards to ZiPS, right here’s his projection for the contract extension:
ZiPS Projection – Brandon Pfaadt
Yr
W
L
ERA
FIP
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
10
8
3.79
3.57
27
27
154.3
144
65
19
34
152
109
2.3
2027
10
7
3.80
3.59
26
26
151.7
141
64
18
33
147
109
2.2
2028
10
7
3.87
3.66
26
26
146.3
137
63
18
32
138
107
2.0
2029
9
8
3.95
3.74
26
26
145.7
138
64
18
32
134
105
1.9
2030
9
7
4.02
3.82
24
24
136.7
133
61
17
30
122
103
1.6
2031
8
7
4.04
3.86
22
22
127.0
124
57
16
29
112
103
1.5
2032
7
7
4.17
3.93
20
20
116.7
115
54
15
28
101
99
1.2
The ZiPS suggestion for the primary 5 years of that deal is $43.9 million, so this projection is actually nearly proper on the cash. The Diamondbacks, whose $200 million payroll ($226 million for Aggressive Steadiness Tax functions) is a membership report, may have appreciable money coming off the books after the season, with Montgomery, Gallen (who’s making simply $13.5 million), and Kelly ($7 million) hitting free company, together with Eugenio Suárez ($15 million) and Josh Naylor ($10.9 million). Pfaadt’s price certainty and relatively low wage ought to assist present some flexibility when it comes time to restock, ideally if he fulfills his potential as a mid-rotation starter.
