Ken Blaze-Imagn Pictures
The Boston Crimson Sox bandwagon was crowded past the capability restrict this offseason, as you’d anticipate for a staff that added Alex Bregman and Garrett Crochet over the winter, and put two near-majors prospects within the prime seven of the preseason Prime 100. I confess I used to be a passenger on this bandwagon; it was extremely sweaty and no less than one stranger sat on my lap for a pair stops.
However for all that hype, 1 / 4 of the best way by means of the season the outcomes have been a little bit of a let down. Boston is true the place it was final yr: round .500. Disappointing as which may be, many of the particular person performances by Crimson Sox gamers have been inside the realm of expectation. Absolutely it’s a bummer that Jaren Duran and Walker Buehler have solely been about common this yr, as an illustration, however I don’t know that it’s a monumental shock in both case.
The one participant whose numbers are actually knocking me out of my chair proper now’s Tanner Houck.
A tough-throwing large with a cool supply who’d tantalized however solely delivered intermittently beforehand, Houck was a legit front-of-the-rotation power in 2024. He was within the prime 25 within the league in innings pitched, and within the prime 15 amongst certified starters in ERA, FIP, and WAR.
Amongst certified starters this yr, Houck is tied for final in WAR, second-to-last in FIP, and final (by greater than two runs) in ERA. Houck had the bottom HR/9 within the American League in 2024, permitting simply 11 dingers in 178 2/3 innings. This yr, Houck has already given up 10 homers in simply 43 2/3 innings. He’s being taken deep so usually opposing hitters are calling him Professor Aronnax behind his again.
On April 14, Houck obtained completely wrecked by the Rays: 12 runs (11 earned) in simply 2 1/3 innings pitched. Houck allowed dwelling runs in every of the primary two innings, after which all of it fell aside in a nine-run third. On this case, Houck didn’t even enable an extra-base hit within the third, however 5 singles, a stroll, an RBI groundout, a wild pitch, an error, and a stolen base will do the trick.
Insofar because it’s attainable to not pitch that badly and nonetheless surrender 11 runs, I sort of suppose that’s what occurred to Houck. It was only a backyard selection unhealthy begin till issues snowballed on him within the third, and that was largely unhealthy sequencing and not-particularly-hard-hit balls discovering holes.
When this goes for a single, you already know it’s not your day:
Luck however, it was a traditionally unhealthy day on the workplace. It was simply the twenty first outing in main league historical past, and solely the 14th begin, during which a pitcher surrendered 11 or extra earned runs on 12 or extra baserunners in lower than three innings pitched. Earlier than Houck’s tough evening in Tampa, no one had suffered such a destiny since Jordan Yamamoto in 2020.
The truth that Houck obtained torched like that was, considerably counterintuitively, a vote of confidence from supervisor Alex Cora. If he had been some emotionally fragile rookie or a bodily fragile spot starter, he would certainly have been eliminated earlier than the scoreboard bled into soccer territory. However Houck is a hoss, and typically the hoss has to put on it. By the point it will get to 8-0 within the third inning, the sport is misplaced mainly it doesn’t matter what. Cora clearly believed that Houck might bear the bodily and emotional burden of compressing out a pair extra outs to save lots of the bullpen.
Houck clearly flushed it and moved on. He threw no less than six innings in each begins on both aspect of the George M. Steinbrenner Area Bloodbath, with out skipping a begin or something. On Might 1, Houck put in his greatest begin of the season to this point: seven full innings with 4 hits and no walks allowed, in opposition to six strikeouts. All of the harm got here off a solo homer. Possibly the whole lot was returning to regular.
Then, on Monday evening, it occurred once more. Not fairly a carbon copy of the primary nightmare outing, however 11 extra earned runs on the identical variety of mixed walks and hits (12) and the identical variety of outs recorded (seven). That ignoble pitching line, which had popped up lower than two dozen instances in main league historical past earlier than Houck got here alongside, had now been achieved twice in a month by the identical man.
Take away these two horrible begins, and Houck’s seasonal stats don’t look that unhealthy. Eradicating 22 earned runs and solely 14 outs would do wonders for anybody’s ERA. However judging a pitcher by determine skating guidelines (i.e. dropping the low rating) is deceptive at the most effective of instances. When the 2 traditionally abysmal outings make up almost 1 / 4 of the pitcher’s corpus, they’ll’t be ignored.
The factor with Houck is he’s big, and he throws exhausting from a bizarre arm slot. He got here out of the College of Missouri whenever you needed to be 6-foot-6 and throw 97 to pitch there; he was a university teammate of Pete Fairbanks and Bryce Montes de Ocaif you would like some context. (Don’t ask what’s occurred to Mizzou’s baseball program since; it’ll solely upset you.)
The important thing to Houck is the whole lot he throws has depraved motion. He’s obtained a sinker with above-average arm-side motion and elite, nicely, sink, and a splitter that is available in about 5 mph slower with comparable motion. Guys with comparable sinker motion to Houck embrace Zach Eflin, Yennier Canoand Logan Webb. Slower nonetheless is the sweeper, whose common horizontal motion differs from the sinker by 31 inches.
With mid-90s velocity and that sort of motion, you’d anticipate Houck to get a variety of strikeouts — throw a greenback within the swear jar should you’ve ever described him as a “righty Chris Sale” — however he doesn’t. He doesn’t actually stroll that many guys at this stage of his profession. However as a result of the whole lot he throws drops greater than common, he obtained simply an enormous variety of groundballs. I discussed the low dwelling run price, however final yr Houck was additionally one among solely 5 certified starters to publish a GB/FB ratio larger than 2.00. (The opposite 4: Webb, Max Fried, Cristopher Sánchezand the free area, Framber Valdez.)
This yr, Houck remains to be a groundball pitcher, however these additional batted balls within the air are simply killing him:
Tanner Houck’s Outcomes by Batted Ball Kind
Season
GB/FB
LD%
GB%
FB%
HR/FB
LD wOBA
GB wOBA
FB wOBA
2024
2.34
20.1%
55.9%
23.9%
8.8%
.604
.197
.316
2025
1.64
22.1%
48.3%
29.5%
22.7%
.761
.229
.551
In accordance with Baseball Savant, 19.5% of Houck’s batted balls this yr have been pulled within the air (which is the place the house runs come from), up from simply 11.5% final yr.
A few of Houck’s struggles are small-sample-related. They need to be; he’s working an 8.00 ERA now, for God’s sake. The Crimson Sox might run Aaron Sele on the market each fifth day — present, 54-year-old Aaron Sele — and get higher than an 8.00 ERA.
However there are two issues I’ve observed from Houck to this point this yr that bear mentioning. The primary is that whereas Houck’s place to begin on the rubber is unchanged from 2024, his arm angle is down ever so barely. Dropping his launch level by about three inches hasn’t modified the motion on his pitches a lot, and if that had been the issue, I guess the Crimson Sox would’ve observed and altered one thing earlier than Houck had his second 11-earned run begin of the season. But it surely’s notable.
The second factor is one thing I’m positive they’ve observed. Over the course of his profession, Houck has thrown all method of fastballs alongside together with his sinker; a cutter right here, a four-seamer there. He was sinker-only in 2024, and had the most effective season of his profession.
This yr, he’s labored a four-seamer again in just a few instances a begin, largely as a chase pitch up and out of the zone. I get the logic; if the whole lot Houck throws sinks, it’d be good to sprinkle in one other pitch with some rise so you possibly can climb the ladder as soon as each few innings. Simply to maintain hitters sincere.
Besides it completely stinks. Houck has thrown 34 of 44 fastballs exterior the strike zone this yr, and hitters have swung at solely seven of these; 5 of these had been fouled off, not swung and missed at totally.
See, Houck’s four-seamer is like the whole lot else he throws; it sinks greater than the common pitch of that sort would. So whereas Houck’s four-seamer is available in with motion the batter doesn’t anticipate for a four-seamer, it appears to be like rather a lot like probably the most milquetoast, hittable sinker you’ll discover. So when it does find yourself within the zone, hitters are simply clobbering it. It’s like he’s dodging an oncoming automotive and leaping proper into the trail of a practice.
Hitters have put 4 Houck four-seamers in play to this point this yr, leading to two dwelling runs, a line drive single, and a routine fly ball out off the bat of Pederson sportearly within the yr when Pederson couldn’t hit the broad aspect of a barn.
Right here’s a enjoyable truth for you: When Houck places a four-seamer within the zone at any level throughout a plate look this yr, opponents are 7-for-8 with two walks, two doubles, and two dwelling runs. By Baseball Savant’s run worth metric, Houck has already price himself 4 runs by throwing his four-seamer. On a per-pitch foundation, it’s the Twelfth-worst particular person providing in the whole league (minimal 40 pitches).
I don’t need to act like Houck’s whole drawback is a pitch he throws 5.9% of the time. As an example, opponents hit .194 off his splitter final yr; this yr, they’re hitting .425. However the journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step, and if I had been Houck step one I’d take is that this: Cease throwing the four-seamer.
