Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting america on Monday, a go to analysts anticipate will give attention to celebrating Israel and the US’s self-anointed victory towards Iran and discussing a proposal for a ceasefire in Israel’s struggle on Gaza.
That is the third time this 12 months Netanyahu might be assembly US President Donald Trump, who claims the US and Israel “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme throughout a 12-day struggle and that he would resume bombing Iran if it restarts nuclear actions.
Final week, Trump stated Israel had agreed to circumstances for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, which might permit all events to work in the direction of an finish to Israel’s 21-month-long struggle on the besieged enclave.
On July 4, Hamas gave a “constructive” response to Qatari and Egyptian mediators concerning the newest ceasefire proposal.
Is a ceasefire real looking?
On Friday, after Hamas’s response to the proposal, Trump stated there might be a “deal subsequent week” and promised to be “very agency” with Netanyahu to make sure a ceasefire.
Israel has since stated that Hamas has requested adjustments to the proposal that it discovered “unacceptable”, however that Israeli negotiators could be going to Qatar on Sunday to debate the proposal.
Based on a leaked copy of the deal obtained by Al Jazeera, the ceasefire entails a 60-day pause in hostilities and a phased launch of a few of the 58 Israeli captives held in Gaza since a Hamas-led assault on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Israel’s struggle on Gaza has killed no less than 57,000 individuals, largely ladies and youngsters, in what United Nations consultants, authorized students and human rights teams describe as a genocide towards Palestinians.
Many consultants informed Al Jazeera that they aren’t optimistic a brief ceasefire will result in a everlasting finish to the struggle.
“The best way (the ceasefire talks) are being framed leaves me sceptical,” stated Omar Rahman, an knowledgeable on Israel-Palestine with the Center East Council for International Affairs.
Rahman added that he believes Trump was targeted on getting the Israeli captives launched, however not on ending the struggle and the struggling of the individuals of Gaza.
Trump beforehand promised an finish to the struggle after pushing for a ceasefire simply days earlier than he grew to become president in January.
Nevertheless, two months later, Trump did nothing when Israel unilaterally resumed its assaults on Gaza, killing hundreds extra individuals.
Mairav Zonszein, an knowledgeable on Israel-Palestine for the Worldwide Disaster Group, stated that would occur once more.
Relations of Palestinians killed within the Israeli assault on Khan Younis obtain the our bodies from Nasser Hospital for funerals, in Gaza Metropolis, July 4, 2025 (Abdallah F.s. Alattar/Anadolu Company)
“All of it rests on Trump and the US to maintain actual stress (on Netanyahu), however that’s extremely uncertain,” she informed Al Jazeera.
“I’m optimistic there might be some form of ceasefire, however longevity and the phrases are extremely questionable,” Zonszein stated.
“It’s additionally attainable we might see a ceasefire that doesn’t final as a result of … Israel nonetheless now and again simply bombs one thing with out repercussions (in Gaza),” she added.
Yaser al-Banna, a Palestinian journalist in Gaza, stated many within the Strip are divided over whether or not a ceasefire will finish the struggle. Whereas everybody prays it would, some individuals can’t think about Netanyahu sticking to a deal.
Netanyahu insists that the struggle won’t finish with out a “whole victory” over Hamas, an idea he has not outlined.
“About half the individuals in Gaza are very pessimistic… The opposite half believes this time might be completely different on account of shared pursuits amongst Israel, the Palestinians, Arab states and the US to finish this struggle,” he stated.
Glory and pragmatism
Many analysts imagine that Trump is pushed by his need to strike grandiose offers with a purpose to boast about his achievements in world affairs.
On Monday, he’s more likely to take credit score for ostensibly dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme – though that might not be true – and specific his need to retrieve the remainder of the Israeli captives in Gaza.
He additionally desires to get the “Gaza concern” out of the way in which to pursue extra normalisation offers between Israel and neighbouring Arab states, stated Khaled Elgindy, an knowledgeable on Israel-Palestine and a professor of Arab Research at Georgetown College in Washington, DC.
“Trump desires to have the ability to say that he acquired again the Israeli hostages… and acquired a Palestinian state… Then he can name himself grasp of the universe, however getting these issues is way tougher than he thinks,” Elgindy informed Al Jazeera.
It’s unclear whether or not Netanyahu’s political calculations align with Trump’s ambitions.
Israel’s subsequent parliamentary elections need to happen earlier than October 2026, and Netanyahu might go to the polls sooner, using on a possible wave of recognition if he succeeds in returning the remaining captives.
Like Trump, he would additionally tout what he phrases a shocking victory towards Iran to the Israeli public.
These concerns are essential as a result of it’s seemingly that Netanyahu’s frail far-right coalition, held collectively by stress to extend the struggle on Gaza, would collapse if a everlasting ceasefire is reached, stated Hugh Lovatt, an knowledgeable on Israel-Palestine with the European Council on Overseas Relations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends his trial on corruption prices on the district courtroom in Tel Aviv, Israel, March 12, 2025 ( Yair Sagi/ Reuters)
“On the finish of (the attainable) 60-day ceasefire, (Netanyahu) might go to elections by committing to a full finish to the struggle and collapse his coalition; or he might return to struggle to maintain his (far-right) coalition collectively ought to he choose the time not proper for elections,” he informed Al Jazeera.
A attainable, practically unfathomable, final result
Staying in workplace is especially essential for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who faces a number of home authorized prices of fraud and bribery.
Throughout his much-anticipated assembly with Trump, consultants anticipate them to debate Netanyahu’s trial, which many imagine performs a big position in dictating his political calculations.
Netanyahu’s place as prime minister has enabled him to undermine the Israeli judicial system by appointing loyalists to excessive courts and delaying courtroom hearings – an affect he would lose if his coalition unravels.
Trump is conscious about Netanyahu’s dilemma.
On June 25, he known as on Israel to drop the costs towards Netanyahu, referring to the trial as a “witch hunt”.Trump’s feedback recommend that he’s making an attempt to stress Netanyahu’s opponents to concern a pardon in alternate for ending the struggle on Gaza, stated Georgetown’s Elgindy.
Elgindy referenced Trump’s current social media publish the place he alluded to suspending navy help to Israel except prices towards Netanyahu have been dropped.
“The US of America spends Billions of {Dollars} a 12 months, way over some other Nation, defending and supporting Israel. We’re not going to face for this,” Trump wrote on June 28.
That will be a significant – virtually unfathomable – determination to emerge out of the assembly between Trump and Netanyahu, stated Elgindy.
“I don’t see him following by way of, however this can be a typical (menace) that Trump would make,” he informed Al Jazeera. “His (modus operandi) is to blackmail and coerce. That’s his model of diplomacy.”
Elgindy added that it was distressing that Trump would threaten to chop navy help to Israel to guard Netanyahu and never beleaguered, ravenous Palestinians in Gaza.
The choice to pardon Netanyahu lies with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, however such a transfer could be unprecedented, and the president has not indicated that he plans to take action.
Analysts imagine Herzog could also be prepared to pardon Netanyahu if he agrees to exit political life, however not merely to safe a ceasefire.
Zonszein, from Disaster Group, provides that there are legal professionals and justices in Israel who’ve warned “for years” that it’s within the public’s curiosity to achieve a plea cut price with Netanyahu because of the energy he holds over the nation.
Their solely situation is for Netanyahu to agree to go away politics.
“I don’t assume that’s one thing Netanyahu is contemplating. If he was prepared to go away political life, then he might have already negotiated a plea cut price,” she informed Al Jazeera.
