Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports activities
Which gamers most frequently hit the ball to the positions that they themselves play after they’re within the area? It’s a easy query, however it additionally begs bigger, murkier philosophical questions. Is hitting the ball to your personal place the peak of baseball narcissism? Or is it that hitting the ball to your particular spot simply feels proper? Possibly the batter simply stands on the plate, surveys the good green-and-brown expanse earlier than them and will get overwhelmed. “What shall I do?” they ask themselves because the pitch clock ticks down and the new canine distributors emit their indecipherable warblings. Then they see an oasis of familiarity, the one patch of earth that has welcomed them by a lifetime of baseball-related actions. Hitting the ball there simply would possibly really feel like coming house. “I do know simply what I’ll do,” they suppose, twisting their gloved palms towards the deal with of the bat. It’s their pen, and with it they may write what they know.
So who does that essentially the most? Earlier than I dug into the numbers, I put the query to my colleagues. None of us obtained it proper. I assumed I used to be fairly intelligent by choosing Steven Kwan. He’s a contact maven who focuses on dumping the ball into left area, a place famously performed by none apart from a number of Gold Glove winner Steven Kwan. I felt all of the extra intelligent when Ben Clemens picked Kwan, too. We have been unsuitable. So have been Jon Becker, who picked Bo Bichette, Jay Jaffe, who picked Luis Rengifo, and Jake Mailhot, who picked Nico Hoerner. Not one of the gamers we picked was even on the high in his respective place, both on a counting foundation or a fee foundation.
David Appelman graciously took a break from holding FanGraphs working and pulled a spreadsheet containing each ball in play from the 2024 season. It was damaged down by batter, the place they have been taking part in, and the place to which they hit the ball. That method, I didn’t simply must see who hit essentially the most balls to their main place. I may see who hit the ball to no matter place they occurred to be taking part in every time they stepped to the plate. So utilityman Willi Castro obtained credit score for the 14 balls he hit to second as a second baseman, the 2 balls he hit to 3rd whereas taking part in third, 12 balls to shortstop, and 13 every to left and middle. I deleted all rows the place the batter was listed as a DH or a pinch-hitter, and I set a cutoff of at the least 180 whole balls in play, which left a pool of 260 gamers.
Kwan turned out to be the very best guess of the bunch. His 77 balls to left area ranked tenth when it comes to uncooked numbers. That was 19.6% of his whole balls in play, which ranked twenty seventh. Each have been the very best rating of all our guesses. That Ben Clemens positive is wise.
On a fee foundation, as you’d anticipate, the underside of the record was all catchers. No one ever desires to hit the ball to the catcher. No one ever comes as much as the plate and says, “You already know what I’d love to do? I’d like to face right here in entrance of 35,000 screaming followers, take a mighty reduce, and launch the ball about 2 1/2 toes.” Nobody hits the ball to the catcher all that a lot except they’re bunting – lately, bunts have made up roughly 12% of all balls hit to the catcher – and no one desires molassessy catchers bunting very a lot.
Of the 33 gamers on the very backside of the record, 32 have been catchers. Ben Rortvedt, Gabriel Moreno, and Tyler Stephenson tied with a pleasant, spherical whole of zero balls to the catcher over 1,122 mixed plate appearances. As Stephenson led the trio with 464 PAs as a catcher, he’s the true loser of our contest, and I completely imply that as a praise. In actual fact, over his total profession, he’s credited with hitting only one ball to the catcher. Behold the rarest jewel in Stephenson’s glowing crown.
However I stated 32 out of 33, proper? Who was the one place participant who hit the ball to his personal place much less typically than any catcher? That may be Rhys Hoskins, who hit simply six balls to first base over 362 plate appearances and 192 balls in play whereas taking part in first, for a 3.1% fee. Without any consideration-handed energy hitter who has all the time been close to the highest of the league in pull fee and close to the underside in groundball fee, Hoskins earned his spot as the one non-catcher under a catcher. However he’s additionally there due to the acute tendencies of the one catcher who managed to sink beneath him. Nick Fortes hit the ball to the opposing catcher 9 occasions final season. He bunted as soon as and hit one swinging bunt for a single, however he surpassed Hoskins as a result of he has one very specific expertise, and it’s not a very fascinating expertise. He’s actually good at hitting the ball straight up within the air.
Fortes popped out to the catcher seven occasions in 2024. On a per batted-ball foundation, that was simply as many as Anthony Santander, who was, as everyone knows, cursed way back by the god of foul popouts.
So if we begin from the underside of the record, we’ve got catchers, then right-handed first basemen. Subsequent come pull-happy second basemen like Zack Gelof and Jose Altuve, then we get some left-handed-hitting third basemen and shortstops coming into the combination. Possibly you’ve seen that there’s a gaggle I haven’t talked about but.
That’s proper, no outfielders. Of the underside 102 gamers on the record, 101 are infielders and catchers. Of the highest 50 gamers, 47 are outfielders. The primary lesson I discovered from this very scientific train is that we actually underestimate how typically the ball will get hit to the outfield. I believe the disconnect is available in half due to the way in which this stuff are measured. If a balls sneaks simply previous a diving shortstop and into left area, you or I would think about it to be a ball hit to the shortstop, however it can go down as being hit to the left fielder. However, if the ball simply sneaks previous the left fielder, both they or the middle fielder would be the one who finally ends up chasing it down and retrieving it from the warning monitor. That could be the rationale so many people unwisely selected infielders, however it’s not the true driving power behind the supremacy of the outfielder.
The driving power is that main leaguers simply hit the ball to the outfield rather a lot. Final season, 38.1% of batted balls have been fly balls and 19.6% have been line drives. Now add to that the share of popups that make it deep sufficient to be caught by outfielders and the share of groundballs that actually are blasted straight by the infield. It’s not an amazing majority, however any method you slice it, most balls in play go to an outfielder. That slight benefit is compounded as a result of there are 4 fundamental infielders and solely three outfielders. Every outfielder is getting a bigger share of that bigger pie. Again in little league, you set your greatest defender at shortstop as a result of that’s the place the ball often went. The very best defenders are nonetheless taking part in shortstop within the majors as a result of it’s the hardest place, but when groups determined to place the very best defenders the place the motion was, they’d all be in middle area.
Above is the general distribution breakdown of all balls in play, and please word that I’m conscious that the numbers add as much as 101%. That is due to rounding. And likewise as a result of right here at FanGraphs, we would like you to get your cash’s value or one thing. Add all of it up, and outfielders are listed as the first fielder for just below 52% of all balls in play.
The order above interprets on to our record. I took our record of 260 gamers, ranked them by their proportion of BIP hit to their place, then calculated the common rank for every place. The order is the very same: middle area first, proper area second, and so forth. So whereas handedness and batted ball profiles are essential in figuring out the place gamers rank inside their positional cohort, they’re nonetheless very certain by their place. There simply isn’t such a factor as a primary baseman who is consistently hitting the ball to first base or a middle fielder who by no means hits it to middle. For those who don’t hit the ball to the outfield, you’re by no means going to play within the majors. (However shoutout to Vidal Bruján for attempting; he one way or the other hit simply 17.1% of his batted balls to the outfield, the bottom mark within the recreation.)
Common Rank
Place
Rank
Heart Area
56
Proper Area
62
Left Area
70
Shortstop
127
Second Base
135
Third Base
161
First Base
186
Catcher
244
The highest of the record is a mixture of all three outfield positions, as a result of there’s some give and take there. Heart fielders are highest just because all people, together with middle fielders, hits the ball to the middle fielder rather a lot. Heart area is huge, and middle fielders get to go after all the things. Nook outfielders are shut behind them as a result of they’re often sluggers who have a tendency to drag the ball within the air rather a lot, which implies they’re sending the ball right into a nook. Center infielders come subsequent, with shortstops barely forward of second basemen as a result of infielders (and people basically) are extra typically right-handed. Final come third basemen, first basemen, and catchers.
Alright, it’s lastly time. Which gamers hit the ball to their very own place most regularly? Let’s begin with the highest 10, each total and on a fee foundation. I believe three gamers have a official case to be our grand champion. BTP stands for Balls to Place, as a result of I actually couldn’t consider a handy guide a rough title for hitting the ball to your personal place. (That’s not fully true; I did consider one catchy title, however it was wildly inappropriate.) On the left are the leaders per balls in play (that’s, the leaders in BTP-per-BIP), and on the appropriate are the gamers who racked up essentially the most whole BTP.
I wouldn’t battle you when you determined that Jarren Duran must be the true winner. He’s the one participant on each lists, with 115 balls to his place and a 23.3% BTP fee. He hit 55 to left area as a left fielder, and 60 to middle whereas he was filling in for Ceddanne Rafaela (who was filling in for Trevor Story at shortstop). Just one different participant even reached triple digits. Significantly, have a look at this spray warmth map. Duran rolls over loads of pitches, however when he’s placing it within the air, he’s placing it anyplace however proper area.
Duran was to this point in entrance as a result of he mixed quantity with excellence. He led off for the Purple Sox and performed practically each recreation, main the league in plate appearances, at-bats, doubles, and triples. He was always hitting gappers and knocking extra-base hits both off the Inexperienced Monster or into the Fenway Triangle. We shouldn’t essentially dock him for relying extra on quantity than fee, however it’s value contemplating that though he completed fifth total in BTP fee, he wasn’t even in first place on his group or at his place. He’s not a slam dunk.
On a fee foundation, the highest of the leaderboard may be very practically a lifeless warmth, however Wilyer Abreu got here out barely on high; he hit 24.61% of his batted balls to his place, only one hundredth of a % above Brandon Marsh at 24.60%. In different phrases, when you spherical up, each gamers hit 1 / 4 of their balls in play to their very own place. Nonetheless, Abreu spent practically all of his time without any consideration fielder, so being a pull- and lift-heavy left-handed hitter labored simply fantastic for him. Simply because the Monster helped Duran put up huge numbers in left area, Fenway’s spacious proper area in all probability value Abreu some house runs that as an alternative went to the appropriate fielder. However Abreu actually racked up the balls to his place by blasting balls by the appropriate facet. Beneath I’ve mixed two warmth maps for his 2024 season. On the underside are all of his batted balls, and on high are his base hits. In Photoshop, I used the mix function with a purpose to heighten the colour depth within the areas the place they overlap.
Abreu hit loads of balls into the appropriate area hole and ripped an entire lot down the appropriate area line, however have a look at that nuclear pink spot behind the infielders on the appropriate facet. He grounded out to second base rather a lot, however he additionally blasted tons of hits proper by the primary baseman and the second baseman. His bedtime routine ought to have an additional hour in-built simply in order that he can thank each god he can consider for the shift ban.
Marsh is essentially the most attention-grabbing title on the record. He shouldn’t have an argument to be our champion. He actually shouldn’t. He didn’t end first on both record! However he spent two thirds of his time in left, just below a 3rd of his time in middle, and a handful of video games in proper, and right here’s the place it will get enjoyable. He actually did are inclined to hit the ball to wherever he was taking part in. When he was a left fielder, the plurality of his balls in play went to left, when he was in middle, the plurality went to middle, and the identical factor in proper.
Brandon Marsh BIP Breakdown
Place
P
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
LF
6
0
21
25
8
6
36
37
28
CF
0
0
5
11
4
7
12
22
12
RF
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
1
3
The man simply plain loves hitting the ball to the outfield. He could have completed behind the chief by 0.01 proportion factors, however of all of the gamers on our record, Marsh understood the task greatest.
And that’s it, my buddies. We’ve answered the query three other ways, which, now that I consider it greater than 2,000 phrases later, is a little bit bit like not answering it in any respect, however right here we’re. We’ve obtained three kings. I’m not right here to tie issues up in a bow. I’m right here to sow chaos, and as anybody who’s learn Dune can inform you, in politics, the tripod is essentially the most unstable of all buildings. When you’ve got a powerful opinion as to who must be our winner, please battle it out within the feedback. I’ll now depart you with the leaders at every place, each on a fee foundation and total.
